Publicly, the Munich Security Conference centred on Ukraine, security and defence cooperation. Privately, the dominant question was different: how far Europe can — and must — move toward security independence from the United States.
Nuclear deterrence talks between France and Germany, Ukraine’s fading prominence in the news cycle, the first informal parade of potential US presidential contenders for 2028, and mass protests against Iran in the streets of Munich all deserve closer attention.
Macron and Merz on the nuclear umbrella
As doubts grow over the durability of Europe’s security relationship with Washington, some European capitals actively explored alternatives to the American nuclear shield. German chancellor and conservative leader Friedrich Merz repeatedly confirmed ongoing discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron on whether France’s nuclear capabilities could be extended to cover other European partners.
“We have initiated a strategic dialogue with Chancellor Merz and other European leaders to explore how our national doctrine can be articulated at a European level,” Mr Macron said.
He stressed that this exchange aims to frame nuclear deterrence within a broader vision of defence and security, helping align French and German strategic thinking. While Berlin appears open to Paris’ proposal, scepticism remains elsewhere in the EU. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, positioning himself as a progressive counterweight to Trumpism, used his Munich speech to caution against nuclear rearmament. He argued that deterrence is “excessively costly and dangerously fragile,” warning that a system requiring absolute perfection to avoid catastrophe is less a safeguard than a gamble. All the same, Mr Macron is expected to present a concrete plan in the coming weeks.
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The US and front-runners
Meanwhile, US Senator Marco Rubio spoke at length about Western civilization as a guiding compass for the current political moment, many Democratic Party officials attending the conference were quietly testing the waters for a post-Trump future. A striking number of Democrats in Munich are widely seen as potential presidential contenders in 2028: California Governor Gavin Newsom, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Mark Kelly, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Senators Chris Murphy, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego.
Most of them, attempting to bolster their foreign policy credentials, found themselves in awkward contrast to Denmark’s prime minister, a seasoned European leader speaking in hard security terms vs US candidates campaigning.
Don’t forget Ukraine, said “tired but strong” Zelenskyy
Four years on, Ukraine remains deeply scarred by war. Negotiations to end the conflict are underway, yet not even US officials express confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to compromise. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked European governments for stepping in to offset the military assistance gap created by Trump’s decision to halt direct US support.
At the same time, he offered pointed criticism of Washington’s approach to peace talks regarding also the EU’s role. “Europe is almost absent from the table. In my view, that is a serious mistake”, he said. President Zelenskyy closed with a direct appeal. “Please, do not forget Ukraine. Had the world paid attention earlier, this war would never have begun”.
Iran in the streets of Munich
Last but not least, Iran was also the focus of protests on the conference’s opening day when supporters of the opposition group People’s Mujahedeen Organization of Iran demonstrated in Munich. Around 250,000 people demonstrated against Iran’s government, according to the Bavarian police, responding to a call by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for intensified international pressure on Tehran. Pahlavi called a “global day of action”, with parallel demonstrations held in Los Angeles and Toronto, and warned that continued inaction by democracies would lead to more bloodshed in Iran following last month’s deadly crackdown on protests.
