Timed to coincide with the Munich Security Conference as it got underway Friday, a new European Commission survey suggests European public opinion is hardening around security alongside a broader policy shift toward increased defence. About 68% of citizens say their country is under threat with 42% see themselves personally at risk.
The data pointed to voters treating security as a central political priority at a moment when governments across Europe are also reassessing spending, coordination and defence capabilities. The timing is not accidental. The findings landed as policymakers have confronted overlapping pressures. In the immediate background, are Russia’s war in Ukraine, a strain in transatlantic relations made possible by a mercurial US administration, as well as a more volatile global security environment overall. Together, those forces are reshaping expectations of what the EU and national governments should deliver on defence and crisis readiness.
Public mood
The survey lands as Europe continues to adjust to the return of large-scale conflict on the continent. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the persistence of war on the EU’s eastern flank since 2022 have reinforced concerns about territorial defence, hybrid threats and long-term instability.
At the same time, debates in Washington over defence commitments, NATO burden-sharing and Mr Trump’s shifting personal engagement on Ukraine have deepened European concerns about long-term reliance on the United States and the durability of its security guarantees, pushing defence higher up the political agenda. Growing frustration is also driven by the contrast between upbeat assessments from US President Trump’s handpicked negotiators in recent weeks and the reality on the ground, where Russia has continued relentless strikes on Ukrainian civilian and military targets with no sign of easing.
Numbers that translate into policy momentum
Beyond the headline finding that roughly 68 per cent of Europeans feel their country is under threat, the poll indicates that concern is feeding expectations for action. Around 42 per cent of respondents say their personal security is at risk, while significant numbers of respondents suggest both the EU and national governments have not yet done enough on defence.
Public backing exists for stronger investment: large majorities support maintaining or increasing defence spending at EU level, and a slim majority express confidence that the EU can play a meaningful role in strengthening security.
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Sharp divides beneath the headline numbers
Threat perception is not evenly distributed across the bloc. The highest levels were recorded in France, where roughly 80 per cent of respondents say their country is under threat, followed by the Netherlands and Denmark at around 77 per cent and Germany at about 75 per cent — underscoring that concern extends well beyond frontline states.
The poll also reveals a political trust gap. While just over half of Europeans say they trust the EU to strengthen security and defence, scepticism is notably higher in some of the bloc’s largest economies, with significant shares of respondents in Germany, Italy and France unconvinced.
Support for defence investment is broad but uneven. Backing is strongest in Portugal, Finland and Lithuania, and remains high in Spain and Denmark, pointing to a cross-regional alignment that cuts across the EU’s traditional north-south and east-west divides.
Policy moving in the same direction
Those attitudes align with steps already underway across Europe. Governments are increasing defence budgets, expanding cooperation and placing greater emphasis on industrial capacity, procurement and resilience in areas such as cybersecurity and energy.
At the EU level, efforts to coordinate capabilities, strengthen the defence industrial base and improve crisis preparedness have gathered pace, even as implementation remains gradual and shaped by national priorities. In Brussels terms, that translates into pressure for funding, coordination and political backing.
Differences remain across the bloc
Threat perception and trust in EU action vary across member states. Countries geographically closer to Russia and those facing more acute security exposure tend to favour stronger collective measures, while sentiment in some of the EU’s largest economies is more cautious.
These differences complicate negotiations over funding, burden-sharing and capability development, and help explain why defence integration continues to move incrementally despite rising concern.
Security returns to the forefront
Security has always been central to Europe’s post-war order, but for much of the past generation it operated within a relatively predictable framework anchored by NATO, US guarantees and the absence of major interstate war on the continent. That environment has changed. The combination of war in Ukraine, geopolitical rivalry and uncertainty around alliances is pushing defence, resilience and strategic planning back to the centre of political debate.
The survey reflects that shift in public mood. Europeans are not newly discovering security risks; they are responding to a perception that the stability which shaped the post-Cold War era can no longer be taken for granted. It is time for governments and institutions to meet that shift, say critics, and adapt accordingly.
