Lebanon is once again drawn into regional conflict in the Middle East, with southern towns under attack and a humanitarian crisis deepening. Its destabilization could send shockwaves far beyond the region, directly affecting the EU. “It would be short-sighted to look at it only in terms of a possible refugee crisis or its impact on energy markets,” says expert on the history of the region Francesco Mazzucotelli.
The two weeks US-Iran ceasefire has been reached with Lebanon included. However, the Lebanese army has warned civilians against returning to the south of the country. The region continues to be targeted by Israeli attacks, while Israel has stressed that its ceasefire with Iran does not extend to the conflict with Hezbollah.
The European Union remains cautious, emphasizing diplomacy as “the only credible path toward a lasting end to hostilities”, as Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Šuica said on X. Critics argue the bloc’s approach is too hesitant and lacks concrete leverage to end violence and protect civilians.
To shed light on these developments, EU Perspectives spoke with Francesco Mazzucotelli, teaching History of Islam and History of the Levant at the post-graduate Master in Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Sacred Heart of Milan, about Lebanon’s role in the conflict and Europe’s response.
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Could the conflict in Lebanon affect the EU?
Lebanon’s further destabilization is a risk for the region. And consequently for the entire European Union, including the member states that are geographically farther. It would be short-sighted to look at the ongoing conflict only in terms of a possible refugee crisis or its impact on energy markets.
The absence of a clear European voice calling for a comprehensive solution in the region is once again a sign of political weakness.
Why was Lebanon so quickly entangled in a conflict between Israel and Iran?
Lebanon is once again in the crossfire of regional conflicts. Israel has been heavily involved in the country since the 1978 invasion of south Lebanon and the 1982 campaign that reached West Beirut. Israel’s occupation, disguised as “security zone”, has been long and harsh. It continued until the withdrawal of its army and the dismantlement of its local proxy militia in May 2000.
It would be short-sighted to look at the ongoing conflict only in terms of a possible refugee crisis or its impact on energy markets.
Israel has been fighting Hezbollah since the creation of the latter in the mid-1980s. The conflict has included spikes of violence, like the July 2006 war, and periods of frozen conflict and lower-intensity attrition.
Israel now sees the ongoing war against Iran as a window of opportunity to modify the regional balance of power once and for all. It aims to consolidate hegemony in the Middle East. Specifically to settle the scores with Hezbollah and destroy its military capability.
On the other hand, Hezbollah has been an integral component of Iran’s scheme of advanced deterrence as a part of the so-called “axis of resistance”. Despite receiving military and financial support from Iran, Hezbollah cannot be simplistically conceived as a “teleprompted proxy”. It retains a substantial level of operational autonomy.
It was sadly expectable that Lebanon could not be easily disentangled from a regional war opposing Israel and Iran.
What is the current political situation in Lebanon, and how is it responding to the attacks? What is Hezbollah’s role?
Calls for Hezbollah to lay down their weapons—and possibly be reintegrated within the ranks of the Lebanese armed forces—have been a bone of contention in Lebanese politics for more than a decade. Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun has repeatedly called for the assertion of state sovereignty. The cabinet headed by Nawaf Salam has decried Hezbollah’s unilateral involvement in military activities not approved by the government.
Israel now sees the ongoing war against Iran as a window of opportunity to modify the regional balance of power once and for all.
The situation further worsened when the president declared that any hand that put civil peace in peril should be chopped. And a leading opposition newspaper wrote that any government that tries to dismantle Hezbollah should be toppled down.
It should be noted that the government Lebanese armed forces are mainly used for the preservation of domestic public order. They are poorly equipped for actual war-zone operations.
The withdrawal of Lebanese armed forces from some villages in the south reinforced the public impression that only Hezbollah have the capability to resist Israel’s invasion. The latest events take place in a country severely hit by financial crisis, unrest, and an almost endemic political instability. It has shattered many plans of economic recovery, administrative reform and sustainable development.
Regarding the situation of displaced civilians, how does it affect the country? Could we see deals with EU countries to set up humanitarian corridors?
The figures provided by international and NGOs all point towards the risk of a severe humanitarian crisis.
Israel’s expulsion orders and bombs have resulted in the displacement of at least 800,000 residents from the south of Lebanon. The neighborhoods of Beirut that have been identified as war targets. Such a high number of internally displaced people puts an extremely severe strain on the country. Lebanon was already affected by widespread economic crisis after the 2020 default, and has almost absent public welfare scheme.
Because of the demographic makeup of the population in the areas mostly affected, these displacement patterns are concerning. They potentially increase sectarian animosities in a country that has suffered from dangerous polarization over the last decades.
Current displacement from the south and the periphery of Beirut is happening in a country already burdened by over a million Syrian refugees. It also hosts several hundred thousand Palestinian refugees.
Humanitarian corridors can provide a safe escape route for some specific individuals or groups. The scale of the humanitarian crisis, however, requires a more comprehensive approach. It must tackle the systemic dimension of the crisis, its historical roots, and the wider political implications of the conflict.
Right now, the Lebanese civilian population is being massacred by Israeli attacks. As for the EU, it should be ashamed of itself for its cowardice and manifest inability to take a coherent and clear position in favor of a negotiated solution to the conflict, instead of just spouting a few pathetic platitudes.
