Global threats including the Ukraine war have shifted EU’s budgetary and mental priorities away from climate protection. Still, the key environmental agenda including the 2040 Climate Target continued to be successfully implemented in 2025 though some adjustments and postponing happenned. Balancing climate goals with economic pressures remains a central theme.
The intermediate 2040 Climate Target, Emissions Trading System for buildings and transport, or planned end of combustion engines in 2035. These were the main topics around which debates and disputes on European environmental policy revolved. EU’s green ambitions were supposed to be significantly supported by the conclusions of the COP30 global climate conference—which however failed to materialize.
2040 Climate Target
Debates on the parameters of the EU’s 2040 Climate Target dominated the entire second half of 2024. The European Commission first proposed amending the European Climate Law to include a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to pre-industrial levels.
This was ultimately achieved, but in a way that many NGOs and climate campaigners strongly criticize. The provisional agreement struck by Council Presidency and the European Parliament’s representatives in early December introduces a number of so-called flexibilities including controversial international carbon credits. In other words, from 2036 onwards, the use of high-quality international credits can make an adequate contribution towards the 2040 target, up to 5 per cent of 1990 EU net emissions. In reality, this corresponds to achieving domestic emission reductions of 85 per cent only by 2040.
International carbon credits may be used in future as a pretext for similar weakening of green policy. – Patrick ten Brink, Secretary General of European Environmental Bureau
Patrick ten Brink, Secretary General of European Environmental Bureau (EEB), in an interview with EU Perspectives called the inclusion of carbon credits “reduction of responsibility” and argued that such an ’outsourcing’ will slow down green solutions. “This so-called flexibility may be used in future as a pretext for similar weakening of green policy,” warned Mr ten Brink on carbon credits..
Emissions from buildings, transport (ETS2)
Changes have also been made to the launch of the ETS2 system, which charges for greenhouse gas emissions from buildings and transport. In December, Council and Parliament supported postponing the entry into application of ETS2 by one year. As a result, the system will become fully operational only in early 2028.
Over the whole year, the ETS2 system has become the subject of heated political debate in a number of member states. Populist parties in particular have pointed out that the system could significantly increase the cost of living for large sections of the population.
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According to EEB Secretary General, postponing of ETS 2 is a “shame” which will have dire consequences. “There will be much less money going to the Social Climate Fund until the start of ETS2 (…) Consequently, there will be less finances to support vulnerable people and small businesses that may face difficulties paying their energy bills,” Mr ten Brink said.
End of combustion engines softened
At the very end of the calendar year, the original proposal, which had banned the sale of new fossil fuel-powered cars from 2035, was also amended. Though campaigners talk about “watering down” and “victory of fossil fueels lobby”, the change is in fact just a small one.
The original rules stated that new vehicles sold from 2035 should be ’zero emission’. Under the amended plan, 90 per cent of new cars sold from 2035 would have to be zero-emission, rather than all of them. Thus, the remaining 10 per cent could be made up of conventional petrol or diesel cars, along with hybrids. An increase in the use of biofuels and so-called e-fuels, which are synthesised from captured carbon dioxide, is expected to compensate for the extra emissions created by petrol and diesel vehicles.
COP30: Global heavyweights missing
On the other hand, the results of the COP30 global climate conference, held in November in Belém, Brazil, fell short of expectations. Although the event confirmed that the European Union is a true global leader in climate protection, cooperation from the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters remained weak.
The United States, China, and India sent only lower-level representatives to the conference. The COP30 final declaration fails to include wording on complete phasing out fossil fuels and adaptation finance commitments remain insufficient for developing nations’ needs. The Conference also fell short of the structural shifts needed for the 1.5°C target (global temperatrure rise compared to pre-industrial levels).
Some of the partial successes achieved at COP30 thus appear modest at best. As an example, Tropical Forests Forever Fund (pledging billions) was successfully established as well as the Belém Mechanism for fair transitions to green economies, focusing on workers and communities. Wopke Hoekstra, Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth admitted after the Conference that “more should have been done” adding that “at least the leaders sat next to each other and discussed things”.
