Within 24 hours of any Russian breach of a ceasefire, Ukrainian forces would respond. A further 24 hours later, responsibility would shift to the so-called “coalition of the willing.” After another day, a Western force backed by the United States would enter the conflict. Ukraine is reportedly prepared to accept these terms at today’s ceasefire talks in Abu Dhabi.
Artillery thundered again over Kharkiv at dawn on Tuesday. Yet, against that racket, Ukraine edged closer to a deal with the country still lobbing the shells. Envoys from Kyiv, Moscow and Washington were to meet in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday for talks that could produce the first such a deal since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian officials say President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes to sign a 20-point peace plan “before the fourth anniversary” of the war on 24 February.
The draft pact offers a ladder of retaliation if Russia cheats, the Financial Times reports. Within 24 hours of any breach, Kyiv would issue a diplomatic warning and move its forces to plug the gap. After 48 hours allies in a “coalition of the willing”—mostly European Union countries plus Britain, Norway, Iceland and Turkey—would deploy. Should fighting escalate after 72 hours, a Western force backed by United States troops would respond in kind.
Guns fall silent, missiles roar
That menu seeks to avoid the fate of the Minsk accords of 2014-15, which Moscow shredded at will while the West watched. This time Washington promises high-tech surveillance along the 1,400-kilometre front, while Paris and London are ready to send soldiers to bolster deterrence. Mr Zelenskyy reckons the framework is “100 per cent ready” and says he is “waiting for our partners to confirm the date and place” for signing.
Peace talkers, though, must yell over fresh explosions. Overnight strikes hit at least six regions, including Kyiv, according to Bloomberg. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s energy minister, raged that “The targets were not military. They were purely civilian: Hundreds of thousands of families, including children, were deliberately left without heat during the harshest winter frosts.” Thermometers read minus 25°C in parts of the country.
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The assault came despite US President Donald Trump’s request that Russia pause attacks for a week. The Kremlin complied for three days, then resumed. Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin’s spokesman, said the lull “would last only until Sunday”. Early Tuesday morning the bombs returned, blowing holes in the fiction of restraint.
Lines in the snow
Still Mr Zelenskyy presses on. “I told the American side that this is important not only for me — it is also very important … for people to see progress,” he was quoted by The New York Tomes as telling reporters in Kyiv. He hopes to pair the ceasefire with a “prosperity plan” for post-war reconstruction, tying Mr Trump into Ukraine’s future before politics in Washington shifts again.
Security guarantees remain the bait. Mr Trump floated protection “NATO-like”, a fifteen-year pledge that any renewed Russian attack would trigger collective action. Kyiv wants 50 years. “My signal was clear: signing security guarantees is an act of goodwill,” Mr Zelenskyy said, bridling at the suggestion that he cede land for promises on paper.
This is important not only for me, it is also very important for people to see progress. — Voloymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Moscow scoffs. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s ex-president, insists that “these guarantees can’t be one-sided. These aren’t guarantees for Ukraine. These are guarantees for both sides: Russia and Ukraine. Otherwise the guarantees don’t work.” The Kremlin also rejects any Western troop deployment on Ukrainian soil, though the draft deal envisages exactly that.
Frozen promises
The biggest snag is Donbas. Washington has hinted that its pledges hinge on Kyiv surrendering the region Moscow covets but has never fully seized. Mr Zelenskyy demurs, refuses to call it a quid pro quo deal. Ukraine will not accept that, he claims. For now, the map remains painted in blood, not ink.
Europe tries to plug gaps America may leave. At a meeting in Paris last month, officials outlined “reassurance measures in the air, at sea and on land” once guns go quiet. They also recalled Minsk, where the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe monitored ceasefires without enforcing them. This time Europeans vow to carry both clipboard and rifle.
Past experience haunts them. Russia violated every truce since 2014, confident no one would intervene. Hence the new plan’s stopwatch: 24, 48, 72 hours, then fire back. Whether the West would really march remains uncertain, but Mr Zelenskyy believes the threat alone could keep Russian troops in their trenches.
A narrow window
For verification, America will provide drones and satellites capable of spotting a battalion leaving its barracks. European commanders will sit in joint headquarters, ready to order jets or launchers forward. Allies argue this fusion of intelligence and muscle could give Ukraine what Minsk lacked—teeth.
Even as the blueprint firms up, rockets keep falling. In Kharkiv officials opened 101 heated tents where residents charged phones and thawed limbs. Water pipes risk freezing once drained. Kyiv counted at least three wounded. The message from Moscow is plain: battlefield pressure must bend Kyiv to the table.
There were no more pseudo-historical lectures. The talks were very focused. — Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister
Yet the negotiating mood has warmed a little. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha noted “progress” after three-party talks in Abu Dhabi last month. He welcomed “a qualitative change in the composition of the Russian delegation” and said “There were no more pseudo-historical lectures… the talks were very focused.”
Signatures matter
Whether focus yields compromise is another matter. Mr Putin claims his army is winning and vows to fight until it “achieves its goals”. Mr Zelenskyy banks on 800,000 troops, Western arms and an economy rebuilt with American money. As delegations fly back to Abu Dhabi, each side looks past the conference room to see whose guns fall silent first.
A truce signed amid shellfire would be an odd beast. Yet Ukraine argues that only by testing Russia—backed by a stopwatch and a multinational quick-reaction force—can any peace take root. Bombs over Kharkiv may delay signatures; they also remind the world why, after four years of slaughter, signatures matter. Should ink and shrapnel mingle in coming weeks, the result will reveal more than any communiqués about Europe’s resolve, Washington’s staying power and Moscow’s appetite for ruin. Given the history of Russia’s willingness to keep its promises, peace is not the odds-on favourite.
