Europe is catching up with China in electric vehicle (EV) sales, but risks losing momentum if subsidies are withdrawn. The shift to EVs is seen as a key lever to cut oil dependence and strengthen energy security. The coming years will reveal whether Europe can turn ambition into action.
If current trends continue, Europe could reach EV adoption levels similar to China before 2030, according to a new study by Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based NGO that promotes sustainable transport. While the EU equalised its EV market share with China in 2020, more ambitious CO₂ targets and sustained policy action will determine whether it can maintain progress in the coming years.
Although the EU matched China’s EV market share in 2020, its automotive CO₂ standards remain weak after 2022, and China’s market share surpassed Europe’s earlier this year. Thanks to stricter and earlier targets set for 2025, the EU is now estimated to be only three years behind.
EV uptake central to energy security
The report argues that accelerating the shift to electric mobility could significantly reduce Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels. Transport remains one of the largest sources of oil demand, making electrification a key factor in improving energy security.
Meanwhile, oil prices of well over US$100 per barrel have caused price hikes for Europe’s motorists. Europe’s eight million electric cars will offset 46 million barrels of oil in 2025.
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“EVs are the super-lever for ending Europe’s dependence on imported oil. The industry narrative that we are too far behind China and that we must weaken the car CO₂ regulation to help them compete, is fundamentally wrong,” T&E Executive Director William Todts argued. “The regulation is not the problem. It is what keeps Europe in the race to be world leaders on battery electric cars. We need to accelerate‚ not capitulate.”
A fragmented transition across Europe
The EU transport report highlights a plateau in transport emission reductions. However, countries with high EV uptake, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, are now seeing sharp declines in transport-related carbon pollution. This progress is being offset by countries like Spain, where EV sales remain too low to significantly reduce emissions.
Without more coordinated action at EU-level, the report suggests, these disparities risk slowing overall progress in reducing transport emissions and weakening efforts to cut oil dependence.
China still in the lead
Overall, China leads the world in this field. Local manufacturers account for 60 per cent of the world’s sales of electric cars. They also produce 20 times as many batteries as their European counterparts. Battery production in Europe is on the verge of change as European and Chinese companies partner with existing South Korean firms.
The study finds that Europe can unlock its potential in battery production with the right policies and financing in place. Yet, it is being attacked by Europe’s automakers who are more concerned with short-term profits than long-term security and sustainability. The EU must resist pressure to further weaken regulation.
