Rumen Radev appears keen to raise his bargaining power in Brussels but will likely stay within the European Union’s red lines. On rule of law, he will be curbed by domestic allies. On Russia/Ukraine, his incentives are aligned with a pro-EU course.
The late humorist P. J. O’Rourke once wrote that “Communism fell because people did not want to wear Bulgarian shoes”. Actual footwear notwithstanding, most Europeans would have hated being in Bulgarians’ shoes on Sunday night: the country had just elected a pro-Russian leader. Yet in reality, things may not be all that bad.
The morning after Bulgaria’s eighth election in five years, anxious officials in Brussels asked a simple question. Would prime-minister-elect Rumen Radev turn into Viktor Orbán’s successor as the European Union’s spoiler-in-chief? The fear is not unfounded. Mr Orbán, who ran Hungary from 2010 until his defeat last week, weaponised unanimity, drained EU funds and blocked repeated sanctions on Russia. Sofia’s new leader criticises Brussels elites, hints at sanctions fatigue and talks of pragmatism toward Moscow. Yet the similarities stop there.
Strong Bulgaria, strong Europe
“People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. I thank them for their trust,” said Mr Radev, a former fighter pilot, in a celebratory speech on Sunday night. With about 90 per cent of ballots tallied his Progressive Bulgaria movement had won at least 135 of the 240 seats in the National Assembly, trouncing the liberal PP-DB coalition on 15 per cent and ex-prime minister Boyko Borisov’s GERB on 13 per cent.
Unlike a week back, when the European Commission president took a mere 17 minutes to congratulate Mr Orbán’s successor, Ursula von der Leyen waited till shortly after 1pm on Monday to fire off a ritual tweet of congratulations. Nobody else in Europe’s upper echelons had yet spoken, but the silence reflected caution more than alarm. Mr Radev’s record and electoral arithmetic suggest a leader more keen on bargaining than breaking things.
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“A strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe.” The words, uttered by Mr Radev during the campaign, catch his balancing act. After all, he takes power only months after Bulgaria joined Schengen’s air and sea borders, as well as the eurozone.
Mr Radev likes to lambast ‘Brussels elites’ and speaks of sovereignty. He accuses the Union of prioritising “ideology over economic pragmatism” and argues that “EU economic decisions are no longer based on real benefits but on ideological correctness”.
Hemmed in
The message, however, differs from Mr Orbán’s relentless drumbeat of “sovereignism”, which cast the EU itself as a threat to Hungarian identity. Sofia’ new leader sought a referendum on euro adoption, calling it premature, yet celebrated Schengen and eurozone entry as successes. “What Europe needs right now is critical thinking, pragmatic actions and good results,” he said. Also, his victory speech sought “to bring a message to Europe that was very clear” in its pro-EU tone.
“A stronger Bulgaria within a stronger Europe, or a Bulgaria that follows the Orbán model, acting as a Trojan horse within the EU?” asked Brussels-based Eunews on the eve of the vote. The question lingers, but structural limits already hem Mr Radev in. Progressive Bulgaria’s platform frames deeper EU integration as an anti-corruption tool and a passport to higher living standards.
The majority it now commands is large but still reduces the likelihood of the procedural brinkmanship that Mr Orbán honed. Unlike Mr Orbán—whose Fidesz-KDNP alliance held a two-thirds “super-majority” for most of a decade—Bulgaria’s new premier cannot rewrite the constitution alone. He must court centrist votes in a parliament scarred by instability.
Critical thinking in demand
Hungary’s former premier thus faced no domestic veto players; Mr Radev must still woo PP-DB or the ethnic-Turkish DPS to secure a two-thirds majority for judicial reform. Those partners lean firmly towards Brussels.
“What Europe needs right now is critical thinking, pragmatic actions and good results, especially to build a new security architecture and … recover its industrial power and competitiveness. That will be the main contribution of Bulgaria to its European mission,” Mr Radev told supporters. The stress on results rather than grievance contrasts sharply with Mr Orbán’s practice of turning EU rows into rallies against imagined foreign diktats.
Mr Radev rose to prominence by backing street protests that toppled a GERB-led coalition in 2025. He vows to purge graft-ridden institutions and restore checks and balances. Brussels, weary after years of monitoring Bulgaria through the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, sees a chance to close that chapter.
The cohesion carrot
No EU sanction mechanism is in play against Sofia. Future money—around €6.3bn in recovery grants—does depend on verifiable reform, a temptation that should keep Mr Radev inside the legal fold.
Mr Orbán chose a starker course. He politicised courts with a 2024 omnibus act, curbed media and funnelling EU cash to loyalists. Brussels froze €17bn in cohesion funds and €10bn in covid recovery grants, making Hungary the only member state without an approved recovery plan by 2026. The financial pain never forced retreat; instead Mr Orbán doubled down, turning each reprimand into fresh evidence of an anti-Hungarian cabal.
Bulgaria remains on its European path, but with a more pragmatic approach. — Rumen Radev, Bulgaria’s prime minister-elect
For Mr Radev the incentives run the other way. Bulgaria still trails the EU income average by more than 40 per cent. Cohesion cash matters. So does a promise of stability after years of revolving-door cabinets. If he delivers cleaner courts, Brussels will claim a rule-of-law win and release funds. If he drags his feet, the Commission may hold back money—but will expect some progress, not the entrenched illiberalism seen in Budapest.
The Russian test
Mr Radev unnerves hawks for one reason above all: Russia. He has called Crimea “Russian”, opposes new sanction rounds that “hurt ordinary Bulgarians” and rejects direct arms transfers to Kyiv. Even so, he does not threaten to veto existing packages. Analysts in Sofia expect a pragmatic line: Bulgarian manufacturers will keep exporting munitions via Romania, but Soviet-era kit will no longer head east from state depots.
Hungary under Mr Orbán went much further. The government relied on Russia for 80-90 per cent of its energy imports and coordinated with Moscow to water down the EU’s 18th sanctions package in 2025. It vetoed a €90bn macro-financial loan to Ukraine and demanded carve-outs from oil embargoes. The tactic earned Mr Orbán domestic applause and Russian cheap crude, but it isolated Hungary from its European neighbours.
Bulgaria’s energy mix gives Mr Radev little incentive to copy that playbook. Black Sea pipelines and liquefied-gas terminals have slashed dependence on Russian fuel. The defence industry’s discreet sales to Kyiv prop up local jobs. Coalition arithmetic also matters. Many Progressive Bulgaria deputies come from pro-European urban districts; they could balk at any outright blockade of Ukrainian aid.
Allies and constraints
Mr Radev also lacks Budapest’s patronage network. Mr Orbán fortified his rule through loyal oligarchs and a “national consultation” that bypassed institutions. Bulgaria’s nouveau political class is untested and internally diverse. Any attempt to emulate Hungarian illiberalism would fracture the coalition that lifted Mr Radev to power. Early talk in Sofia centres on technocratic ministries and a fast-tracked anti-corruption law.
People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. — Rumen Radev
“Bulgaria remains on its European path, but with a more pragmatic approach,” said Mr Radev. That phrase may well rankle some diplomats, but it also signals a willingness to split difference rather than torch bridges. If he withholds lethal aid to Ukraine, he is likely to compensate with humanitarian funds or eased transit for Bulgarian shells sold via intermediaries. Brussels will haggle; it will not confront the wall of vetoes that dogged dealings with Mr Orbán.
The first test may come within weeks, when the Council votes on extending sanctions against Russia’s nuclear sector. Hungary fought carve-outs for its Paks plant. Bulgaria, whose sole reactor uses Russian fuel, may seek a grace period without menacing a veto. That would mirror the deal-making style of Poland’s previous conservative government, not Hungary’s all-or-nothing brinkmanship.
Waiting for evidence
The European Commission will watch appointments to the judiciary and the anti-corruption agency. It will monitor public-procurement portals and media-ownership registers. Suspended funds remain a handy stick if rhetoric strays into obstruction. Yet carrots may work better. Early release of recovery tranches could lock Bulgaria into the pro-European mainstream.
For a bloc emerging from a bruising fight with Hungary, that would count as progress. Mr Radev may unsettle diplomats with sceptical quips about sanctions. He will not, barring a dramatic turn, inherit Mr Orbán’s mantle as the Union’s unrepentant back sheep. Europe can live with pragmatists; it struggles with saboteurs.
