Ahead of the upcoming European Council meeting scheduled for the end of October, the European Commission is set to present “a clear roadmap to launch new joint defence projects, establish precise targets for 2030, and create a European Defence Semester.” As Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed in her State of the Union address in Strasbourg, “2030 is just around the corner, and Europe must prepare today.” From Ukraine to drone deployments on the EU’s eastern flank, the Commission signals it is ready for a turning point in defence policy.
“Over the past year, the EU has taken significant steps in the field of defence. Yet for Europe to emerge as a true geopolitical power, much remains to be done,” observes Tiago Antunes. He is an associate senior fellow with the European Power Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Last March, the Commission launched the Preparedness Union Strategy, but “now it’s time to deliver,” Antunes insists. “The EU needs extraordinary powers to face extraordinary circumstances. It needs speed and agility to respond to foreign threats, hybrid attacks, or other emergencies. All of this requires a robust legal framework to ensure resilience and readiness to act.”
Ukraine: Thirteen member states using SAFE, UK and Canada in the waiting room
In parallel with the State of the Union address, Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius underscored the growing role of the SAFE instrument, announcing that 13 of 19 EU member states requesting loans under the scheme plan to use them to support Ukraine. “SAFE is the most open defence programme we have designed so far,” Mr Kubilius explained. “Loans are reserved for member states. But SAFE is also accessible to EEA countries, Ukraine, advanced candidate countries, and any state that has anchored its security and defence partnership with the European Union.” Bilateral technical agreements with the United Kingdom and Canada on their participation are expected soon. Beyond Ukraine, SAFE is designed to encourage joint procurement in priority areas such as missile defence, land combat, and strategic space capabilities.
The EU needs extraordinary powers to face extraordinary circumstances. – Tiago Antunes, associate senior fellow with the European Power Programme at the ECFR
€6 billion for drones and a new EU-Ukraine alliance
Europe has grasped the strategic ingenuity of Kyiv. As Ms von der Leyen announced, the EU will frontload €6bn from the ERA loan facility and establish a Drone Alliance with Ukraine. “Before the war, Ukraine had no drones. Today, drones account for more than two-thirds of Russian equipment losses. This is not only a battlefield advantage but also a reminder of the power of human ingenuity in our open societies. Yet Russia is catching up fast, backed by Iranian-designed Shahed drones and the advantage of mass industrial production,” President von der Leyen noted.
Beyond Ukraine and the Russian threat—central themes of von der Leyen’s address—the EU’s eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, is emerging as a critical investment front. Brussels envisions a surveillance system to provide Europe with “independent strategic capabilities.” Defence on land, alongside space and satellite monitoring, will become essential variables, with investments aimed at ensuring that “no movement of forces goes undetected in real time.”
For von der Leyen, Europe’s ambition in defence, including outer space, must be explicit and unambiguous. As the Union sets its sights on 2030, one question still echoes across Brussels, defence circles, and European capitals alike: If not now, when?
