Recent Russian provocations—from a drone incursion into Poland to jets above Estonia—have turned the EU’s eastern flank into into a crisis magnet, summoning top officials to the region daily. One by one, leaders are rushing to the frontier to gauge how much the bloc is ready for the next attack.
Finland’s 1,340-kilometre border with Russia has long made it a test case for Europe’s ability to defend itself. As Russian drones batter Ukraine and hybrid operations unsettle the Baltics, Helsinki is positioning itself as one of the EU’s most prepared member states, ready to face cyberattacks, sabotage, and the weaponization of migration.
Direct military invasion not likely, but…
Just days after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of Eastern Sentry—a military operation to reinforce the EU’s eastern flank in response to the Russian attack on Poland—European Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner traveled to Vaalimaa, Finland last week. The timing was no coincidence. Events just outside EU borders highlight how, in Brunner’s words, the EUfaces “large, significant challenges—from threats to critical infrastructure, to cyberattacks, to the weaponisation of migration—and we need an integrated response to all of them”.
It is Finland that is on the front line. And the country knows it. “Finland has consistently been one of the best-prepared member states,” Mr Brunner noted.
Nobody knows better than Finland’s politicians. MEP Pekka Toveri (EPP/FIN), a Security Committee (SEDE) member, told EU Perspectives that Kremlin threats take various forms. These include direct challenges to border security, hybrid operations including sabotage and/or attacks on critical infrastructure, cyber operations, disinformation, and so on. “I do not consider a direct military invasion against Finland likely in the near future, but we must be remain prepared for continued disturbances along our border, such as hybrid activities and weaponisation of migration. All these threats are closely interconnected, and Russia’s clear objective is to generate instability that destroys democracy from within. This remains one of its most effective tools to undermine our Western democratic societies,” said Mr Toveri.
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Concerns over the eastern flank
From the Finnish perspective, stronger tools are needed to counter drone threats. “Recent events in Ukraine, and even in Poland, have shown the need to reinforce our borders with new technologies. Every day we see reports of Russian drones causing destruction in Ukraine—both at the front and in populated areas. This is not only warfare but also hybrid influence. They are using intelligence, sabotage, territorial violations, smuggling, and other illegal actions,” said Interior Minister Mari Rantanen. She reassured the public, however: “Finland’s security situation is currently stable. Our authorities and defense forces are operating under normal conditions, but of course we remain vigilant, 24/7, in case of any changes.”
The EU, Ms Rantanen noted, has shown “sensitivity” on the matter and pledged to seek “possibilities and solutions to provide support in the fight against drones.” As Mr Brunner explained: “This is also—and always—about funding. We must examine possibilities for additional resources and assess member states’ needs. Based on these, we must decide how to allocate further support, because as President von der Leyen said in her State of the Union address, this will be crucial. In a sense, defense and security must go hand in hand.”
(Russians) are using intelligence, sabotage, territorial violations, smuggling, and other illegal actions. — Mari Rantanen, Finland’s Interior Minister
Mr Taveri agrees. Defence is crucial for every EU member state. “These challenges do not concern Finland alone. While we carry our responsibility for addressing and reacting to them at the national level, they will affect directly and indirectly across Europe,” he said.
Protecting critical infrastructure
Back in January 2025, at a meeting in Helsinki, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had announced NATO’s Baltic Sentry, aimed at protecting critical infrastructure and enhancing cooperation within the Critical Undersea Infrastructure Network, which also involves private industry. The initiative seeks to boost resilience of underwater assets.
However, for the Baltic Sentry, “integrating new NATO operations with Finland’s existing defence structures will require coordination and time. In overall picture these initiatives will strengthen both our national security and NATO as a whole,” Mr Toveri stressed.
NATO is at war with Russia. This is obvious and requires no further proof. — Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
Mr Rutte warned that recent sabotage had damaged energy and communication cables, but expressed confidence that “by working together with all Allies, we will do what it takes to ensure the safety and security not only of our critical infrastructure but of all that we hold dear.” The Secretary General also stressed that Finland had shown that strong, lawful action is possible: “Ship captains must understand that potential threats to our infrastructure will have consequences, including possible boarding, impounding, and arrest.”
Drone attacks in the east
Less than a year ago, Russia’s hybrid attacks in the Baltics were NATO’s greatest concern. Now the Kremlin is shifting its drone warfare elsewhere. In response, NATO has launched Eastern Sentry on the eastern flank. Military activity is set to begin in the coming days, with contributions from multiple allies, particularly to counter the drone threat.
“What happened on European soil was dangerous and unacceptable, whether intentional or not,” said Mr Rutte. He added that the assessment was ongoing, but stressed that “Russia’s reckless behavior is extremely dangerous”.
Following the launch of the mission, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared: “NATO is at war with Russia. This is obvious and requires no further proof, as Western countries are already involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through their support to Kyiv.”
Shortly afterward, NATO Allies discussed the situation in light of Poland’s request for Article 4 consultations. Mr Rutte noted that while this was the largest recent cluster of NATO airspace violations, “what happened on Wednesday was not an isolated incident. Russia’s recklessness in the air along our eastern flank is increasing in frequency.”
Enthusiasm in the air
Still, the Secretary General reiterated NATO’s core task: deterring aggression and defending every ally. “It’s positive for the EU that all eight countries (so far) are European and that they responded so quickly. Also good that the large players, including to southern nations like Spain and Italy, stepped up. It gives some hope that Europe (and by extension the EU) can be a security player going forward but of course, it remains to be seen how effective they are in scaring Moscow to stop with air breaches,” Rikard Jozwiak, Europe editor at Prague-based Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty told EU Perspectives.
It is important to avoid overlapping between NATO initiatives and the EU’s security-related efforts already at the legislative and planning stage. — MEP Pekka Toveri (EPP/FIN)
Enthusiasm seems to be in the air, despite some concerns on EU defence strategies and NATO initiatives. Indeed, from the European Parliament point of view, “it is important to avoid overlapping between NATO initiatives and the EU’s security-related efforts already at the legislative and planning stage”, claimed Mr Toveri.
“The Baltic Sentry was quite effective in that, no big sabotages have been noted there since it kicked off. Here its much harder though. Its the entire eastern flank and UAVs are just much harder to deal with than rickety ships of the Russian shadow fleet,” Mr Jozwiak said.
