Ceasefire first, negotiations over territory to follow later. Ukraine’s sovereignity to be respected, no withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from any territory currently under Kyiv’s control. The country’s membership of NATO not ruled out and Ukrainian army to be capped at 800,000 soldiers. These are the main points in which the European plan to end the war in Ukraine differs from the original American one.
Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are currently at their most intense and promising since the beginning of the conflict. They may even bring about a result that seemed impossible just a few days ago—namely, the strengthening of the Europe’s position as a global player.
A bleak start: American, or Russian plan?
Nothing should be taken for granted, though. When the United States presented its original 28-point plan to end the war last week, Europe and Ukraine were horrified. The vast majority of commentators viewed the document as a reward for Russia, which would mean de facto Ukrainian surrender.
According to it, Ukrainians would have to cede certain territories that they still control to Russia. The Ukrainian armed forces would be limited to a maximum of 600,000 men in the future, and the country would have to commit to never joining NATO.
That document, which the United States subsequently described as ’merely a framework for negotiations,’ appeared to be extremely pro-Russian. Even some members of Congress questioned whether it was really a proposal drafted by the US, rather than a document planted on American negotiators by the Russian counterparts.
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Geneva: a 180-degree turn
However, following weekend talks in Geneva that were attended by representatives of the United States and Ukraine, and indirectly also by Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, everything has changed.
The document leaked from these talks, published by Reuters and titled ’European counter-proposal’, is is significantly more favorable for Ukraine. Compared to the original text, references to Ukraine’s inability to join NATO and to reducing the size of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 men have been removed. Kiev would also not have to hand over any territory it currently controls to Russia. And frozen Russian assets would be used to reconstruct Ukraine, rather than being partly given to U.S. investors.
Enthusiastic reactions have been coming in from Brussels and individual European countries since Monday morning. “A strong European presence in Geneva has allowed us to make good progress in the negotiations for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine (…) Ukraine’s territory and sovereignty must be respected. Only Ukraine, as a sovereign country can make decisions regarding their armed forces, the choice of their destiny is in their own hands, said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a statement.
The plan to end the war in Ukraine agreed upon by the United States and Ukraine in Geneva is a decisive success for Europeans. – Johann Wadephul, Germany’s Foreign Minister
According to Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul “the plan to end the war in Ukraine agreed upon by the United States and Ukraine in Geneva is a decisive success for Europeans.” The minister added that “all issues concerning Europe and NATO have been removed from the plan. This is a major success that we achieved yesterday.”
Kremlin to make uneasy decisions
However, many uncertainities remain in this matter. As an example, the exact form of the revised proposal is not officially available at this time. It is assumed that the final decisions on the part of Ukraine and its allies will be made by US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, their meeting has not yet been scheduled.
And the biggest question remains the reaction of the other side, which started the war. Moscow claims that it has not yet received any official information about the results of the Geneva talks.
In recent months, Russia has come under heavy pressure from sanctions imposed by the US, the EU, and other countries, and its economy is in obvious trouble. On the other hand, the Russians are advancing on the Ukrainian front, though the progress is rather slow and involves enormous casualties. Vladimir Putin will therefore have to choose whether a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
