Germany’s political map has pulled in two opposite directions. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the Left has won Berlin, delivering Chancellor Friedrich Merz a double setback from opposite ends of the political spectrum.

The AfD took between 37% and 38% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, according to projections by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, narrowly defeating the governing Social Democrats (SPD), who scored between 35.5% and 36.5%.

In Berlin, meanwhile, the Left won between 24.5% and 26%, putting it clearly ahead of Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which received around 20%. The AfD came third in the capital with between 13.5% and 16%.

The results are preliminary and expected to be refined as counting continues. But their political message is already clear: Germany’s political centre is under pressure from both sides.

Catastrophe, says Merz

For Merz, the result is particularly damaging. His CDU is hovering around the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with projections putting it at 5–5.5%. Falling below the threshold would keep the party out of the state parliament altogether.

Merz himself described the result in the northern state as a “catastrophe”. Yet the chancellor said he intends to remain in office and push ahead with his reform agenda.

“Reforms must come,” Merz said after the projections were released, arguing that reforms were a “means against authoritarianism” and necessary to restore prosperity. “I accept this responsibility,” he added. 

A second AfD victory in the east

The result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania comes just two weeks after the AfD won a record 43.8% in neighbouring Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to an outright majority.

The party’s latest victory is less overwhelming, but still marks a major breakthrough. It has more than doubled its support compared with the previous state election and becomes the strongest force in a state where the SPD has been the dominant governing party since 1998.

The race had tightened considerably in the final weeks. The SPD’s long-serving Minister-President Manuela Schwesig managed to close much of the gap with AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm, turning what had looked like a comfortable AfD lead into a close contest.

That recovery was not enough to secure first place.

The result does not, however, mean that the AfD is about to take control of the state government. The SPD, CDU, Greens and Left have ruled out cooperation with the party, while the BSW has also said it would not support an AfD minister-president. 

The arithmetic could nevertheless make governing difficult. The SPD and Left would need additional support depending on the final seat distribution, while the Greens and BSW were both around the threshold for parliamentary representation.

The AfD’s rise therefore continues to reshape the political landscape even where it remains excluded from government.

Berlin moves in the opposite direction

While Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania went right, Germany’s capital delivered a very different message.

The Left emerged as the strongest party with around a quarter of the vote, followed by the CDU at 20%. The Greens were on roughly 15–15.5%, while the AfD reached 13.5–16%. The SPD, which has traditionally been one of Berlin’s major political forces, fell to around 12%. BSW was on approximately 5%.

The result represents another difficult night for Merz’s part, but also illustrates the geographical and political divide running through Germany.

While the AfD has been making its strongest gains in eastern and more rural parts of the country, Berlin remains dominated by parties on the left and centre-left. The city’s housing crisis, cost of living and urban policy were central campaign issues, with the Left campaigning on stronger intervention in the housing market. 

The AfD has nevertheless made significant gains even in the capital, moving into third place. That leaves Germany’s political picture increasingly fragmented: the same election night has produced a victory for the far right in one eastern state and for the radical left in the country’s capital.

Another blow to Merz

The two results follow the CDU’s defeat in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, when the AfD came within striking distance of an outright majority.

That sequence of defeats has intensified questions about Merz’s leadership. His government was elected on promises of economic reform and a revival of Germany’s stagnant economy, but the chancellor has struggled to translate those ambitions into political momentum. 

The CDU’s result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is particularly striking. The party won 13.3% in the previous election; this time it is only narrowly above the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament.

Merz has rejected suggestions that the results should lead to a change at the top. Instead, he has framed the answer as more reform.

The question now is whether that message can withstand pressure from within his own party, and whether the increasingly polarised German electorate will give the political centre time to deliver it.

For now, Sunday’s results point in two directions at once: eastward Germany is moving further towards the AfD, while Berlin has moved further left. And in the middle sits a weakened CDU and a chancellor insisting that he intends to continue.