Most EU regions had larger economies in 2024 than before the pandemic, but 46 remained below their 2019 levels. Eurostat figures published on Thursday reveal an uneven recovery: strong growth in Ireland, Malta and Bucharest contrasted with steep declines in parts of Bulgaria, Greece and Romania.

Across the EU, economic output increased by 5.6 per cent between 2019 and 2024, after adjusting for inflation. Of the 244 regions with available data, 197 grew and one remained unchanged. However, the comparison captures more than Covid’s aftermath: the period also brought Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an energy crisis and changes to regional industries.

From a widespread collapse to uneven recovery

The initial shock reached almost everywhere. A Commission analysis published in 2023 found that regional GDP fell in all but three EU regions in 2020. Tourism, cultural activities and industries affected by disrupted supply chains were particularly exposed.

Yet the rebound was also unusually broad: only four regions recorded further contractions in 2021. The Commission described the recovery as “relatively more broad-based and faster” than after the financial crisis of 2008.

Tourism illustrates that reversal. Overnight stays in EU accommodation fell by more than half in 2020, hitting destinations dependent on international travel. By 2023, the EU total had surpassed its pre-pandemic record. In 2024, Spain’s Canary Islands recorded 99.5 million nights, making them the bloc’s most visited region. The sector’s early collapse did not become a permanent decline across Europe.

By 2024, Ireland’s Eastern and Midland region, which includes Dublin, had recorded the strongest economic expansion since 2019, at 38 per cent. Northern and Western Ireland followed with 36.4 per cent.

Outside Ireland, Bucharest-Ilfov grew by 33 per cent, Malta by 32.9 per cent and the French overseas region of Mayotte by 32.1 per cent. Almost every EU capital region expanded; Helsinki-Uusimaa was the exception, contracting by 1.9 per cent.

Strong growth does not necessarily mean high living standards. Despite its expansion, Mayotte’s GDP per person remained around 30 per cent of the EU average in 2024, after adjusting for price differences. Ireland’s figures require another caution: multinational companies can substantially inflate recorded output, making GDP an imperfect guide to households’ circumstances.

National growth can leave whole regions behind

Romania shows how sharply experiences can diverge within one country. While its capital region expanded by a third, Sud-Muntenia contracted by 13.5% and Sud-Vest Oltenia by 11.3%. The largest decline anywhere in the EU was in southeastern Bulgaria’s Yugoiztochen, down 20.5%. Western Macedonia in Greece lost 18%, while Groningen in the Netherlands contracted by 14%.

Those losses cannot all be treated as lingering damage from Covid-19 lockdowns. Eurostat links Groningen’s decline to the phase-out of extraction from its main gas field. Its account of Yugoiztochen points to structural challenges, weak investment, low productivity and demographic pressures. The five-year comparison identifies places that lost output, but does not isolate how much of each decline Covid caused.

Nor did an economy’s position above its pre-pandemic level guarantee continued growth. Ireland’s Southern region was 26% larger in 2024 than in 2019, but contracted by 5.5% in 2024 alone. Northern and Western Ireland also shrank that year. A strong cumulative recovery can therefore conceal a more recent slowdown.

The broader tendency was recovery followed by much slower expansion. EU GDP rebounded by 6.4% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022, before growth weakened to 0.4% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. Europe had regained the output lost during Covid, but that aggregate recovery left substantial gaps between regions. For the 46 still below their starting point, the challenge now extends beyond recovering from a health emergency to rebuilding investment, productivity and economic opportunity.