„A marriage made in heaven,“ said Finnish President Alexander Stubb in Ottawa about the relationship between Canada and the European Union. Once a joke, today Canadians are serious about a potential accession of Canada to the EU, and economics are at the forefront of the conversation. 

Fifty seven per cent of Canadians now support their country joining the European Union according to a recent Nanos poll. Eighty four percent see strengthening economic ties as the most viable path forward, regardless of membership.

For Europe, the premise, while distant from operational, is anything but far-fetched. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Canada a „perfect match“. Former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt declared there is „no reason why EU membership should be off the table“. 

Since the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) entered provisional application in 2017, bilateral goods and services trade between the two markets has grown 72 per cent, reaching €125 billion in 2024, and Canadian aluminum exports to the EU are up 378 per cent. 

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According to the European Commission‘s 2025 ex-post evaluation of CETA, the preference utilisation rate for Canadian exports to the EU stood at 58.3per cent in 2023 — meaning more than four in ten eligible exporters are still leaving tariff savings on the table.

A closer Canada would mean more resources for Europe, when the EU needs them most. Canada holds lithium reserves that could supply half of cumulative global demand from 2030 to 2050 if production capacity is scaled up. The country also produces aluminum, nickel, and platinum the EU urgently needs. But CETA Plus frameworks could expand this access just as easily as through accession.

A turn from Trump 

Canada is looking to diversify from the United States quickly in response to the hostility of President Donald Trump‘s administration. But it finds itself interconnected with the US market. Seventy five percent of Canadian exports go to the US. 

„It was fine in the good old days,“ says Augusto Lopez-Claros, Executive Director of the Global Governance Forum and one of the most vocal advocates for Canadian membership. „But those good old days are gone.“

Middle powers unite

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called Canada „the most European of non-European countries“, but has ruled out membership itself.

For Lopez-Claros, Carney’s vision of middle powers coming together leads to inevitable tethering of Canada and the EU. „Canada is already operating as if it were a member of the European Union — except for the fact that it doesn‘t happen to be located in Europe,” he says. 

He argues the traditional logic of EU enlargement — driven by geography — is obsolete. What matters now, he says, is institutional quality and values alignment. On those metrics Canada already outperforms several existing EU members.

“Does Canada want to be a rule taker, accepting rules decided by the three major blocs, the US, the EU, and China? Or does it want to be a rule maker? The only option strategically for Canada is to become a rule maker within the context of something like the European Union,“ says Lopez-Claros.

More than bilateral? 

But for Bernard Hoekman, Director of Global Economics at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute, the bilateral accession conversation reflects why EU trade policy is less effective than it could be.

„You should also want to do the same thing with Japan and Korea,“ says Hoekman. Rather than negotiating everything bilaterally, he argues, the EU should use existing frameworks such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to broaden cooperation beyond Canada. “Otherwise you’re stuck with an incessant, recurring pattern of having to bilaterally negotiate everything.“ 

The CPTPP is a 12-country Pacific Rim free trade agreement — including Canada, Japan, Australia, and the UK — that entered into force in 2018 after the US withdrew from its predecessor the TPP. It currently covers around 15 per cent of global GDP. It eliminates tariffs and trade barriers across goods, services, and digital trade for its 12 members. Such an attractive model, several countries including China have applied to join, but accession talks are stalled.

For Canada, what EU membership would genuinely add is a seat at the table when rules are written. For Europe, the chance to deepen its weight on the world stage. The marriage, if it happens, will be long and complicated, but the first move may have been made.