European companies saw the tariffs coming. They rushed their exports to the United States while they still could. Year later, the bill has arrived: EU exports to the US dropped by 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. The full weight of the transatlantic trade war hit Europe’s bottom line.
The story begins a year ago. When Donald Trump returned to the White House and made clear that tariffs on European goods were coming, exporters did not wait. Pharmaceutical companies, chemical producers and manufacturers accelerated their shipments to the United States, front-loading sales before the new costs kicked in. EU exports to the US hit a record €80 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2025.
The hangover was inevitable. Exports fell sharply through the rest of 2025, and by the first quarter of 2026 the year-on-year comparison looked brutal: a 30 per cent drop, with the EU–US trade surplus shrinking from €80 billion to €34 billion in just twelve months.
The wider fallout
The wider picture is no less uncomfortable. The EU’s overall trade surplus with the rest of the world narrowed from €52 billion to €13 billion over the same period. Exports to China fell by nearly 8 per cent. Energy costs pushed import bills higher. The bloc’s position as the world’s largest trading entity is under pressure from multiple directions at once.
This remains a concern for EU stakeholders. It increases costs and creates a significant administrative burden for EU exporters.
—Paula Pinho, spokesperson, European Commission
The Commission has acknowledged the strain. “This remains a concern for EU stakeholders. It increases costs and creates a significant administrative burden for EU exporters,” Paula Pinho, a Commission spokesperson, said.
Waiting for Turnberry
The Turnberry deal struck between Ursula von der Leyen and Trump last July was meant to cap US tariffs at 15 per cent. The EU and US are still working to finalise the agreement. In the meantime, European exporters are living with the consequences.
There is some cautious optimism. In the first quarter of 2026, exports to the US grew modestly compared to the previous quarter, up 3 per cent, suggesting the worst of the shock may have passed. But the annual comparison remains stark, and with the Turnberry deal still not fully in force, European exporters have little certainty about what comes next.
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The stakes are high. The United States remains the EU’s single largest export market, absorbing nearly a fifth of all goods leaving the bloc. No trade relationship matters more. And right now, no trade relationship is more fragile.
