Fewer workers will soon carry the cost of more pensioners, in taxes, pensions and care. The EU’s population has peaked at 450.6 million and will shrink below 400 million by 2100, a new European Commission report shows. Brussels says the shift is also an opportunity.
The European Commission published its third demography report on 14 July. It shows the EU’s population will keep growing for only a few more years. Then, a decline will follow.
Numbers should peak at around 453 million in 2029. A slow decline follows: to roughly 445 million by 2050, then 398.8 million by 2100. That marks a fall of about 11.7 per cent compared with today. It would bring the bloc back to the population size it had in the second half of the 1970s.
Fertility remains the main driver. Even continued net migration cannot offset the growing gap between births and deaths across the Union. Europeans are living considerably longer, meanwhile. Life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024. By 2100, it could climb above 90 years for women and 86 for men. Nearly one in three EU residents will be aged 65 or older by 2050, compared with one in five today.
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A shrinking, greying continent
The labour market already feels this shift. Eurostat projections in the report show the working age population, those aged 15 to 64, will shrink by an average of 1.2 million people each year between 2025 and 2050. Around one in five people of working age currently sit outside the labour force altogether..
The report points to three groups who could soften that blow. Women make up the biggest group: the EU’s gender employment gap stands at just over 10 percentage points, with 70.8 per cent of women in work compared with 80.8 per cent of men. Older workers form another group. Employment among people aged 55 to 64 has already risen sharply: up 13.5 percentage points for women and 12.2 points for men between 2016 and 2025. Eight million young people who currently neither work nor study represent a third pool of untapped potential, provided they gain the right skills.
Migration can help too. Skilled workers from outside the EU already fill vacancies in sectors facing shortages. The report still stresses one priority above all: upskilling people who already live in the Union.
None of this comes free. Longer lives mean more people will need help in old age. The number of Europeans requiring long term care should rise from 36 million today to 48 million by 2070. The share of people aged 80 and above will double over the same period, from 6.2 per cent to 13.3 per cent of the population. Health, care and pension systems will all face growing pressure as a result.
Turning challenge into opportunity
Despite the strain, the Commission frames the transition as more opportunity than threat. Longer, healthier lives are expected to fuel a growing silver economy, a market for products and services tailored to older citizens, supporting jobs in healthcare, technology and financial services.
Europe’s population is changing, and Europe’s policies must change with it.
— Dubravka Šuica, Commissioner for the Mediterranean, responsible for demography
“Europe’s population is changing, and Europe’s policies must change with it,” said Commissioner Dubravka Šuica, presenting the report. Demography, she added, can no longer be treated as a standalone issue.
The Commission’s response rests on the Demography Toolbox, adopted in October 2023. Since then, it has grown into a series of targeted initiatives: the European Affordable Housing Plan, the Intergenerational Fairness Strategy, the EU Anti-Poverty Strategy, the Union of Skills and the European Care Strategy, among others. Their speed of delivery may decide the outcome. Europe’s slow shrinkage could become a crisis, or simply a fact of life its economy learns to work around.
