More than a decade after shelving its EU ambitions, Iceland is asking voters whether to return to the negotiating table. Early voting opens on Monday ahead of a referendum that could put the island nation back on the path towards membership.
Icelanders can start casting their ballots on in a referendum that will decide whether the country should reopen talks on joining the European Union. Polling day itself falls on 29 August, when voters will answer a straightforward yes-or-no question: Should Iceland resume accession talks with the European Union?
It is not a vote on joining the EU, Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has stressed. “It’s a referendum on getting a deal,” she said on The Rest Is Politics podcast. “It’s preserving optionality: do you want the option of seeing what the agreement looks like?”
If voters back reopening the talks, Iceland would simply restart negotiations over the terms of possible membership. Any final decision on joining the bloc would come only after those negotiations had concluded. It would require a second referendum.
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Early voting allows people to cast their ballots before election day. According to Iceland’s National Electoral Commission, voters can do so at district commissioners’ offices across the country as well as at Icelandic embassies and consulates abroad. Previous elections suggest early votes typically account for around 15 to 20 per cent of the total.
Polls point to a photo finish
Opinion polls show Iceland almost perfectly split over the issue. A June poll by research company Maskína found that 53.1 per cent of decided voters backed reopening accession talks, while 46.9 per cent opposed the move.
A Gallup survey carried out around the same time painted the opposite picture, giving opponents a narrow lead of 54 per cent. That leaves undecided voters, make up around 14 to 16 per cent of the electorate, likely to hold the balance. Most observers expect an extremely close result.
Support also varies sharply by region and political affiliation. Voters backing the pro-European governing Social Democratic Alliance and Reform Party are the keenest supporters of reopening negotiations. The strongest resistance comes from supporters of the Centre Party and the Independence Party. Support is also greater in Reykjavík, while voters elsewhere in Iceland tend to be more sceptical about EU membership.
Back on the table after more than a decade
Although Iceland is not an EU member, it is already closely tied to the bloc. The country belongs to the European Economic Area, giving it access to the EU single market, and is also part of the Schengen area. “Some would say we are even 75 per cent in the EU,” the prime minister remarked.
The referendum follows a decision by Iceland’s parliament in late May to put the issue to the public. Ms Frostadóttir noted that Iceland is one of the few countries that has never held a popular vote on EU membership. “The people have never gotten to have a say whether they want to fully join the EU or not.”
Iceland launched accession talks in 2010, at the height of the global financial crisis, when membership was widely seen as a path to greater economic stability. The negotiations stalled in 2013 after the economy rebounded faster than expected and opposition to some membership conditions gathered pace.
Fishing proved the biggest sticking point. Iceland feared losing control over its fishing grounds and one of the country’s most important industries. Before suspending the process, Reykjavik had closed 11 of the 33 accession chapters.
Security concerns revive the debate
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has also pushed the EU question back into the spotlight.Iceland, home to fewer than 400,000 people, is a founding member of NATO but has no standing army. For decades, it has relied on allied cooperation for its defence.
Recent remarks by US President Donald Trump, including his claims over Greenland, and the Arctic’s growing strategic importance have fuelled the debate. For some Icelanders, the changing security landscape has raised fresh questions about whether closer ties with the EU would strengthen the country’s position in a more uncertain world. Ms Frostadóttir also said many Icelanders find it frustrating that even allies often confuse their country with Greenland.
Critics warn of the costs
Not everyone wants Iceland back at the negotiating table. The Icelandic Young Farmers Association, for instance, has unanimously rejected not only eventual EU membership but also restarting accession talks. The group argues that years of negotiations would create uncertainty for the farming sector and discourage investment. It also warns that EU membership could weaken the position of Icelandic producers.
Supporters of reopening negotiations counter that Iceland already adopts much of the EU’s legislation through its existing agreements, despite having no direct say over how those rules are written.
Authorities are also preparing for possible disinformation campaigns. Ahead of the referendum, media literacy organisation Netvís launched an online reporting portal where people can flag suspected attempts to manipulate public opinion. “We have every reason to be aware that technology can be used to stir up conflict and influence our opinions,” said Stefanía Ragnarsdóttir of Netvís.
So far, the organisation says it has not detected any major incidents. However, it expects disinformation activity to intensify as polling day approaches. Netvís has also urged voters to verify information through multiple sources and not to treat AI-generated answers as automatically trustworthy.
With the debate entering its final stage, Icelanders will soon have the chance to decide which direction they want the country’s European debate to take. The answer will come on 29 August.
