Brussels says its new deal will cut Chinese hybrid car imports by more than half. Beijing says its exports will keep growing. Both can be right, and the small print of the 350,000-car quota shows why, just days before EU leaders meet in Brussels.
The European Union will cap imports of Chinese-made hybrid cars at 350,000 a year from as early as December. The limit covers plug-in hybrids too and rises by six per cent a year over four years. Two senior Commission officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, disclosed the figures on Monday.
Three days earlier, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič had announced the deal in Beijing but refused to give any numbers. So far, the two sides share only an understanding, and the legal text has yet to appear.
The two sides read the same number very differently. The Commission compares the quota with the 800,000 Chinese hybrids it expects this year without any limit. “This opens the prospect of cutting China’s exports by more than a half,” Mr Šefčovič said in Beijing.
China’s Ministry of Commerce looks at last year instead. Citing Eurostat, it said on Monday that the EU imported 302,000 Chinese hybrids in 2025, up from 107,000 a year earlier. Against that figure, the quota leaves room for growth of around 16 per cent.
Quota rather than tariff
The enforcement also differs from the EU’s usual trade defences. According to Borderlex and The Guardian, customs would hold back cars above the quota rather than charge them an extra tariff. Earlier reports had suggested additional duties, and Brussels has yet to publish the final mechanism.
The Commission is expected to launch the measure on its own initiative, without any complaint from industry. According to Borderlex, it also agreed with Beijing in advance how the scheme would work.
This opens the prospect of cutting China’s exports by more than a half. — Maroš Šefčovič, Trade Commissioner
Legally, Brussels will use a safeguard. World Trade Organization (WTO) rules allow this tool when a sudden surge of imports threatens a domestic industry. Unlike anti-subsidy duties, which the EU imposed on Chinese electric cars in 2024, a safeguard needs no lengthy investigation. According to Agence Europe, the measure will first apply provisionally for 200 days. Member states will then vote on it by qualified majority.
The safeguard formally covers hybrid imports from all sources, not only China. Brussels has yet to set allowances for other suppliers. That point matters to Beijing. According to the ministry, both sides agreed that no measure would single out Chinese products or discriminate against Chinese firms. China’s quota will also be no smaller than that of any other supplier, Global Times reported. China kept its right to turn to dispute settlement and to seek compensation.
What counts is where a car is built, not whose badge it carries. Chinese cars assembled inside the EU, for example in Hungary, fall outside the quota. A Chinese-brand hybrid made in Türkiye would count towards Türkiye’s allowance rather than China’s, Agence Europe reported.
Hybrids that European carmakers build in China, on the other hand, will count against the Chinese cap. For Chinese groups, the cheapest way round the limit is to build their cars in Europe, together with the jobs that come with them.
Warnings from Beijing
Beijing has accepted the deal, but not quietly. On Tuesday, Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account linked to state broadcaster CCTV, said China would require the EU to implement the agreement. The account also signalled that Beijing was ready to act if Brussels introduced new trade restrictions, Bloomberg reported. Analysts cited by Seoul Economic Daily expect Chinese carmakers to soften the blow by building more cars in Europe, often in factories European rivals no longer need.
Europe’s own car battle is moving to other fronts. Opening the Paris Motor Show on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France and Germany were close to a deal to protect European carmakers. The two countries have long disagreed over EU support for local production and the phase-out of combustion engines. According to German media, Paris would accept softer 2035 emission rules in return for Berlin’s backing of European production requirements.
EU ministers discuss trade relations with China on Tuesday at the General Affairs Council, which prepares this week’s summit. EU leaders meet in Brussels on 15–16 October, with competitiveness at the top of their agenda. The hybrid quota will be the first test of whether Brussels can rebalance trade with China without sparking new retaliation.
