Donald Trump has torn up the Turnberry Agreement for the fourth time. Ater announcing 25% tariffs on European cars and trucks — directly breaching the deal’s 15% ceiling with no explanation offered — European carmakers and the millions of workers who depend on transatlantic trade ask whether a durable deal with Washington is possible at all.
“I am pleased to announce that, based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The move directly contradicts the US commitment to a ceiling of 15% on tariffs applied to EU goods. Trump did so, without any provided reason.
A bad track record
Kelly Ann Shaw, a senior trade adviser in Trump’s first term, told Reuters the breakdown was foreseeable, given how slowly the EU had moved. The European Parliament only voted to advance implementing legislation in late March, and the deal remains stuck in trilogue between the Commission, Council and Parliament.
But repeated violations by the Trump administration have slowed the EU’s progress. In January, Trump threatened punitive duties on six EU member states in retaliation for their participation in a military exercise in Greenland provoked by his annexation threats.
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In February, after the Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA tariff authority, he replaced the invalidated measures with a universal surcharge that pushed duties above the 15% ceiling. A month later, he restructured the Section 232 metals regime and imposed levies of up to 50% on steel, aluminium and copper, tearing through the deal’s tariff architecture.
Brussels responds
“The EU is implementing its joint statement commitments in line with standard legislative practice, keeping the US administration fully informed throughout. We maintain close contact with our counterparts, including as we also seek clarity on US commitments,” a Commission spokesperson said.
This latest move demonstrates just how unreliable the US side is. This is no way to treat close partners.
— Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee (S&D/DEU)
Bernd Lange (S&D/DEU), who chairs the European Parliament’s trade committee, was more direct. “This latest move demonstrates just how unreliable the US side is. This is no way to treat close partners,” he said. “Now we can only respond with the utmost clarity and firmness, drawing on the strength of our position.”
Premise of the deal
The Turnberry Agreement aimed to pull back from the edge of a full transatlantic trade confrontation, which increasingly seems impossible. The EU committed to eliminating tariffs on American industrial goods and buying US energy at scale. The US agreed to cap duties on European imports at 15%.
Bilateral goods and services trade ran at roughly €4.6bn a day in 2024. The auto sector alone had stood to gain hundreds of millions of euros monthly under the deal’s terms.
Road ahead
Brussels will likely try to salvage the deal. But four violations in, questions about US reliability are harder to dismiss. To pressure Trump into compliance, the Commission has harder options available. The Anti-Coercion Instrument was designed for these scenarios. It would allow the EU to restrict American firms’ access to public contracts and limit US investment. Member states, however, remain divided on whether to use it.
The Parliament’s March vote also built in safeguards: tariff preferences contingent on US compliance, and an expiry date of March 2028 if the agreement is not renewed.
Had the trilogue concluded, Friday’s announcement would have triggered the deal’s sunrise clause. The March safeguard makes EU tariff preferences conditional on the US staying within the 15% ceiling. The EP clauses have been validated, but the deal itself has been undercut.
