The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just about energy. It is becoming a food security crisis as well. Fertiliser prices are rising‚ transport costs are mounting and farmers could feel the full impact within a few months. The hunger risks could hit hardest in Africa, though even Europe is not completely immune to the fallout.
The warning comes from the President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Álvaro Lario, in testimony to the European Parliament. “Food systems currently remain very structurally vulnerable‚” Lario told the Parliament’s agriculture committee. “Europe is also not insulated from these shocks․”
Multiple organisations have reported that in addition to oil and gas‚ the Strait of Hormuz is also commonly used to transport fertilisers. According to estimates reported by Carnegie Endowment‚ a third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the strait․
Global hunger still high
The warning comes as global hunger remains high. In the most recent Global Report on Food Crises‚ 266 million people suffered from acute food insecurity in 2025. Famine has been declared in Gaza and Sudan․
We do expect over the next six to 12 months the situation only to worsen because of the price of fertiliser and transport. — Álvaro Lario, President of IFAD
Lario believes the most dangerous aspect of the crisis is that its effects will not be immediate. “We do expect over the next six to 12 months the situation only to worsen because of the price of fertiliser and transport. Many countries are using stocks but this can last three or four months,” he said.
This means farmers may need to reduce their use of fertiliser‚ stop planting‚ or borrow even more money․
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Lessons not learnt
MEPs across several political groups said the crisis proved Europe had not learnt any lessons from previous shocks like COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Without self-sufficiency and security of supply‚ there is no independence either‚ Elsi Katainen (Renew/FIN) explained. She voiced concerns that Europe should not move from one dependency to another․
We have the option to produce these fertilisers at home‚ and we do nothing. — Daniel Buda (EPP/ROU)
Socialist MEP Éric Sargiacomo referred to the blockade as “a sword of Damocles” hanging over farmers and consumers and around the world‚ adding “there is not enough fertiliser for the next harvest”.
Others were more blunt. MEP Daniel Buda (EPP/ROU) asked why Europe is not using existing production capacity․ “We have the option to produce these fertilisers at home‚ and we do nothing,” he claimed.
Commission’s action plan
The European Commission expressed its concern․ Christina Miranda‚ of DG International Partnerships‚ said the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine were creating “severe humanitarian‚ economic and food security consequences worldwide”.
On 19 May‚ the Commission will present a new Fertilisers Action Plan. It will contain both short-term actions to provide immediate relief to farmers and the fertilisers industry‚ and longer-term ones to reduce the EU’s reliance on imports‚ Miranda said.
In particular‚ it should promote low-carbon and bio-based fertilizers‚ and efficiency and transparency in the supply chain sector. The strategy aims to tackle structural vulnerabilities, correct market imbalances, boost domestic production and diversify supply chains.
Africa could be hit hardest
For Lario‚ the crisis is a warning for Africa‚ where many countries import food while having massive untapped agricultural potential themselves. He said African leaders are increasingly seeing food security as “a matter of national security”. But many African governments have little financial space to respond because their national budgets are consumed by debt service requirements of 10 to 25 per cent․
The lesson according to Lario is not that every country has to become self-sufficient. But that they need diversification of suppliers‚ inputs‚ crops and production methods. “We go back to what happens in every food crisis. We say we have to invest in resilient systems,” he told MEPs.
For Europe‚ the Hormuz crisis is more than just another bump in the global oil market. It is a test of whether the EU is determined to act before the next crisis.
