Airlines could face higher climate costs that passengers may eventually have to pay for. A new study suggests that current international carbon-offset rules may not deliver enough emissions cuts. If the EU reaches the same conclusion and tightens the rules, those costs would likely feed through to ticket prices.
Some 63 per cent of emissions credits had a “very high” likelihood of not reducing greenhouse gas emissions, according to a major study prepared for the European Commission.
Another 17 per cent was rated high risk and 20 per cent medium risk. None of the assessed supply was considered low risk. The study assessed emissions credits available for purchase during the first phase of CORSIA, the global aviation climate scheme.
How does the aviation scheme work
CORSIA, or Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, is a scheme developed by ICAO, the United Nations agency tasked with regulating international civil aviation. When total emissions resulting from international aviation exceed a predetermined threshold set by ICAO, participating airlines are required to make payments to cover all or part of the excess.
These payments are made via the purchase of approved carbon credits. Each credit represents one metric ton of CO₂ that has been reduced or removed somewhere in the world. According to a study funded by the EU, emissions covered by CORSIA exceeded its base line by 15.4 per cent in 2024. That required participating airlines to purchase approximately 56 million tons of CO₂ credits.
The study does not immediately change the rules or increase the price of flying. But its findings come as the EU considers how international aviation should be treated under Europe’s own carbon market.
The EU Emissions Trading System, or ETS, requires airlines covered by it to pay for their emissions using carbon allowances. It currently applies mainly to flights within Europe, while CORSIA covers relevant international flights outside Europe operated by European airlines.
Could passengers end up paying more?
According to EU regulations, the Commission must evaluate whether CORSIA is providing adequate environmental protection. If so, then future considerations concerning how international aviation should be regulated under the EU carbon market would be influenced accordingly. Consequently, if Brussels determines additional regulations are necessary, airlines may incur higher costs.
Additionally, researchers analysed potential EU regulations that might be implemented in the future. Based on these projections, researchers estimated that operating expenses for flights departing Europe and landing at destinations outside of Europe could increase anywhere from 64 to 74 per cent by 2040 compared to those experienced in 2024.
The credibility of the system ultimately depends on whether the emissions reductions airlines pay for elsewhere are real and lasting. If policymakers conclude that current safeguards are insufficient, airlines could eventually face higher climate costs. Part of the additional expense is likely to be passed on to passengers.
