Floods, droughts, and heatwaves are exposing gaps in Europe’s preparedness, and the European Commission warns that the risks will worsen. It wants governments to prepare for 3°C of global warming by 2100. A central question remains: who is responsible for protecting people from the consequences?

“Some may say resilience is expensive. But the right question is: what is the real cost of being unprepared?” Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition Teresa Ribera said as the Commission presented its package on 27 October.

The proposed Climate Resilience Law would require governments to clarify responsibility for managing climate risks, from threatened infrastructure to disrupted essential services, while leaving them to choose the measures suited to their countries.

Planning for a hotter world. And deciding who acts

The proposed law establishes a reference trajectory of global warming above pre-industrial levels: 1.5°C by 2030, 2°C by 2050, and 3°C by 2100. Governments would use this shared baseline when assessing risks to infrastructure, policies, and investments.

It is a planning assumption, rather than a new emissions target. “Our society and economy need to become ‘resilient by design’ or we’ll risk disaster by default,” Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth Wopke Hoekstra said in the Commission’s announcement.

Governments would also have to identify which authorities manage climate risks in key policy areas. Mr Hoekstra described the frustration of residents facing floods or wildfires while politicians dispute who should have taken responsibility. “We are not going to prescribe who needs to do it, but we are going to ask that the identification is being done,” he said.

Some may say resilience is expensive. But the right question is: what is the real cost of being unprepared? — Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition

National adaptation planning already exists under the European Climate Law and the EU Adaptation Strategy adopted in 2021. The new proposal adds the common warming baseline and clearer arrangements for managing risks.

Countries could fulfil obligations under several pieces of legislation through one consolidated strategic plan. “This approach aims to improve consistency across Europe without imposing a one-size-fits-all model,” the Commission explains.

Three digital tools would help translate those plans into decisions. The European Climate Viewer maps projected hazards using Copernicus information. The Navigator of Climate Resilience Tools helps users find relevant resources. The Mission Solutions Explorer shares adaptation measures already tested by European communities.

The tools make existing knowledge more accessible: Mr Hoekstra pointed to Spanish cities already using rainwater reservoirs, permeable paving, and floodable green spaces as responses that others could learn from.

Funding and further protection still to follow

The Commission estimates that adapting Europe’s infrastructure and economy requires around €70bn annually, but the package does not establish a dedicated new adaptation fund. It points instead to existing EU programmes and private investment.

The European Investment Bank’s commitment to invest at least €30bn in adaptation by 2030 was announced on 22 October, ahead of this proposal. “Every euro invested in resilience today helps protect jobs, businesses and livelihoods tomorrow,” Mr Hoekstra said.

Other prominent measures also predate Tuesday’s announcement. The Commission announced the European Heatwave Plan, Climate Insurance Alliance, and an initiative to identify Europe’s 100 most vulnerable territories in September. EU Perspectives covered the announcement and Europe’s widening climate-insurance gap.

They remain under development and will be presented separately. Ms Ribera said the European Water Initiative would follow next year.

Within six months of the proposed law’s adoption, the Commission would present an implementation plan identifying support for putting it into practice. The Commission will present an EU strategic plan on climate resilience in 2028.

Tuesday’s package advances how governments should assess risks and assign responsibility; negotiations and subsequent measures will determine how those requirements translate into protection for people, homes, and essential services.