More than 2,000 prisoners of war could return home within weeks. That is so far the only tangible outcome of the latest US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi. Kyiv speaks of momentum, but the dispute over territory is as deep as ever.

“I think that we have a good momentum to bring the solution before the new year comes,” Davyd Arakhamia, a member of Ukraine’s negotiating team and head of the ruling Servant of the People parliamentary group, told reporters after the negotiations. He did not explain what such a solution would involve or disclose the remaining obstacles.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday before seeing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin. Mr Zelenskyy said his meetings in Ireland would also address urgent energy needs following Russian attacks. “We will discuss this with designated European partners at meetings in Ireland,” he wrote in a post on Wednesday.

Optimism meets unresolved demands

Mr Arakhamia said Russia had arrived with rigid instructions, making discussions difficult. However, the American approach to discussing both countries’ post-war future helped open the dialogue. He also called for Europeans to join negotiations about the continent’s future security.

I think that we have a good momentum to bring the solution before the new year comes. — Davyd Arakhamia, Ukrainian negotiator

Ukrainian delegation chief Rustem Umerov offered a more cautious assessment. The parties had clarified their positions, but substantial disagreements persisted. He said further negotiations had potential, with difficult work still ahead on ending the war, security guarantees, and reconstruction.

Prisoners yes, territory no

Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said the sides appeared closer to peace, while placing responsibility for progress on Ukraine, Washington, and Europe. He nevertheless rejected territorial swaps and said Russia’s so-called buffer zone along the Ukrainian border would continue expanding. Those remarks offered little indication of a change in Moscow’s territorial demands.

The agreed prisoner exchange remains the clearest practical outcome. Russian general Alexander Zorin said it could take place within two to three weeks and involve more than 1,000 people on each side. On Tuesday, Mr Zelenskyy said the sides had discussed 1,000 or 1,500 prisoners each. Mr Kushner said the final numbers would be settled on Thursday. The figures and timing therefore remain provisional, rather than a completed exchange or evidence of agreement on a ceasefire.