Europe has cut its emissions by almost two-fifths since 1990, mostly by cleaning up power plants and factories. That was the easy part. The rest depends on millions of private decisions, and nine member states are already falling behind.
Europe’s emissions curve still points down. It is just getting flatter. EU greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.6 per cent in 2025, after a 2.5 per cent drop a year earlier, according to preliminary figures in the latest Trends and projections report from the European Environment Agency (EEA). The European Commission confirmed the figure in its Climate Action Progress Report, which it published on 9 November.
The long view looks brighter. Net emissions are now 39 per cent below 1990 levels. Over the same period, the EU economy grew by 74 per cent and its population by eight per cent. Europe has shown it can grow richer while it pollutes less.
Close to the target, on paper
The real question is whether the EU will make it by 2030. Under the European Climate Law, the bloc must cut net emissions by at least 55 per cent compared with 1990. If member states put all their planned measures in place, the EEA expects a cut of 54 per cent. Even that near miss only works if governments actually pass the laws, fund the subsidies, and enforce the rules they have promised.
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So far, the electricity sector has done most of the heavy lifting. Wind and solar now make up almost half of the EU’s power generation capacity. Carbon pricing helped too. Under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), power plants, heavy industry, and airlines pay for every tonne of CO2 they emit. Since 2005, emissions in these sectors have fallen much faster than elsewhere.
Elsewhere, the picture looks less rosy. Emissions from domestic transport rose by 0.3 per cent last year, and those from buildings by 0.8 per cent. Brussels calls these ‘effort sharing’ sectors, a group that also includes agriculture, small industry, and waste. Their emissions stayed broadly flat in 2025. By 2030, the Commission expects them to fall by 38.5 per cent compared with 2005, short of the 40 per cent target.
Nine capitals behind schedule
The Commission now wants answers. Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, and Sweden are not making enough progress towards their national targets for these sectors. Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth Wopke Hoekstra will send each of them a letter. The nine will then have three months to submit a corrective action plan showing how they will speed up. The Commission will assess the plans within four months.
Germany shows why. Emissions from German transport rose by 2.1m tonnes in 2025 to 146.3m tonnes, according to the German Environment Agency (UBA). Transport now emits more than the country’s entire industry. Buildings also went the wrong way, as a cold winter pushed up demand for oil and gas heating. Berlin may have to buy emission allowances from other member states to cover the gap. Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider wants to keep such purchases to a minimum.
The EEA’s starkest finding explains the urgency. To reach the 2030 goal, these sectors must cut as much over the next five years as they did over the previous two decades combined. Progress there depends on millions of private choices. A family must pick a heat pump over a gas boiler. A commuter must switch to an electric car or a train. A farmer must change how they fertilise fields and feed livestock.
There are signs of movement. Registrations of battery-electric cars rose to 1.9m in 2025, roughly one in six new cars. Heat pump installations also sped up, with an estimated 41 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity, up from 26 GW a year earlier. The trend points in the right direction. The question is whether it moves fast enough.
All eyes on Antalya
The timing adds pressure. The reports came out as the COP31 UN climate summit opened in Antalya, Türkiye. The EU has travelled there with the message that pledges alone are no longer enough and countries must deliver. Its own numbers show how hard that is.
At Monday’s midday briefing in Brussels, journalists pressed the Commission on whether Europe is in fact slowing down. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the EU remains on track but admitted that “we need to step up the game”. She also rejected claims that recent changes to climate rules, such as extra flexibility for carmakers and a delay to methane requirements, weaken the bloc’s ambition.
The EU’s emissions continue to fall and use of clean technologies is expanding across the economy. But the climate crisis is accelerating too. — Wopke Hoekstra, Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth
Mr Hoekstra insisted that “Europe is stepping up, not slowing down”. “The EU’s emissions continue to fall and use of clean technologies is expanding across the economy,” he said. He also warned that “the climate crisis is accelerating too”. The bar keeps rising as well. Since April, the amended Climate Law has required a 90 per cent cut in net emissions by 2040. And the 2030 goal is not yet in the bag.
