The EU entered the heating season with its gas storage at the lowest level in more than a decade. Reserves began falling further during the first week of November. The European Commission insists there is no immediate threat to supply. But the IEA warns of Europe’s reliance on LNG imports and the risk of price volatility.
Underground gas storage across the EU stood at around 74 per cent of capacity at the beginning of the month. Levels fell to 72.65 per cent on 8 November, according Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).
The November decline itself is nothing unusual. As temperatures fall, European countries start drawing gas from storage to meet rising demand from households and industry. The concern lies in the starting point. Europe began this heating season with its lowest reserves in more than a decade.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), stocks at the start of the heating season were at their lowest since 2013. They also remained well below the average levels recorded over the past several years.
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We do have measures that can be put in place should the situation so require. But for the time being, we do not have this kind of situation that would trigger any of these emergency measures. — Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, European Commission spokesperson
At the end of last winter, Europe had less gas in storage left. Stocks stood at just 28 per cent of capacity, compared with 34 per cent a year earlier. The nine-year average for that time of year is around 40 per cent, according to the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).
Europe failed to close the gap over the summer. High prices for imported LNG and weaker commercial incentives to buy gas for storage slowed the refill. Disruptions to LNG supplies from the Middle East, linked to conflict in the region, added to the pressure.
Storage levels peaked this year at 74.96 per cent on 28 October. Refilling the facilities also proved considerably more expensive than in previous years. ACER estimates that filling Europe’s storage facilities cost up to €27 billion in 2026.
Commission sees no threat to supply
The European Commission is keeping a close eye on the situation but sees no immediate risk to security of supply. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen confirmed that European stocks remain below historical averages. However, she stressed that member states are not currently reporting any supply problems. “We are monitoring the situation closely,” she said.
The spokesperson added that the Gas Coordination Group meets regularly to assess developments across member states. The Commission also has measures introduced after the 2022 energy crisis at its disposal. It can activate them if necessary. “But for the time being, we do not have this kind of situation that would trigger any of these emergency measures,” Ms Itkonen stressed.
The Commission also reiterated that today’s situation differs significantly from the crisis four years ago. Europe now has more diversified supply sources, greater capacity to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and lower gas consumption.
Germany lags behind as Poland leads the way
The EU average masks considerable differences between member states. Poland, Portugal and Italy are entering winter with storage facilities close to full capacity. Latvia, Slovakia and Germany, by contrast, remain well below the average.
German storage facilities were exactly 61 per cent full on 1 November. According to Reuters, this was the lowest level at which the country had entered the winter season. Germany has the largest gas storage capacity in the EU, making its position important for the wider European market. Poland sits at the other end of the scale. Its facilities were 99.2 per cent full on the same day.
But storage percentages alone do not tell the whole story. Olga Khakova, an energy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), made this point in an October interview with EU Perspectives.
Comparisons between countries must also account for storage capacity, consumption, connections to Europe’s gas infrastructure and access to LNG terminals, she explained. Countries with almost full storage facilities do not necessarily have more durable reserves than those with lower fill levels.
Ms Khakova pointed to Poland as an example: “Its capacity is a fraction of its annual consumption. Comparing countries’ storage percentage levels without taking into account demand and regional interconnections does not provide the full picture,” she warned.
IEA warns of price pressure this winter
While the Commission highlights the resilience of Europe’s infrastructure, the IEA points to the smaller safety margin created by low storage levels.
Its latest report, Global Gas Security Review 2026, warns that low European reserves and tight global LNG supplies could intensify competition between Europe and Asia. Both regions will be competing for available cargoes. This could push spot gas prices higher during the winter, particularly when demand rises sharply.
Global LNG supply is also expected to fall by three per cent in 2026, equivalent to almost 20bn cubic metres. According to the IEA, this would mark the largest year-on-year decline on record. The main reason is reduced supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates following disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency’s stress scenario also considers the possibility of European storage levels falling below ten per cent of capacity by the end of March 2027. Such scenario assumes a colder-than-usual winter and continued disruption to LNG shipments through Hormuz. This is not the agency’s central forecast, but a warning about the risks Europe faces.
The IEA also highlights a technical limitation of underground gas storage. Once fill levels fall below 30 per cent, the rate at which facilities can deliver gas generally starts to decline. Low reserves can therefore create problems beyond the total amount of gas available. They can also limit the ability to meet sudden spikes in demand.
What are the EU’s gas storage rules?
The EU introduced mandatory gas storage targets in 2022, following the energy crisis and cuts to Russian gas supplies. The original rules required member states to fill underground storage facilities to at least 90 per cent of capacity by 1 November.
In July 2025, the Council of the EU approved an extension of the rules until the end of 2027. It also introduced greater flexibility. Member states can now reach the 90 per cent target at any point between 1 October and 1 December. Under unfavourable market conditions, they can apply a margin of up to ten percentage points below the target. The Commission can authorise a further five-point reduction under certain conditions.
The changes aim to let countries buy gas when prices are more favourable. They also seek to ease market pressure caused by countries refilling their storage facilities simultaneously ahead of a fixed deadline.
Europe’s entry into winter with its lowest reserves in more than a decade does not, in itself, mean a gas shortage lies ahead. Much will depend on how cold the winter proves to be and how quickly demand rises. The availability of LNG on global markets will also matter, as will the reliability of supplies from major producers. These factors will ultimately determine how comfortably Europe gets through the winter.
