Europeans must pin their hopes on the Munich Security Conference to start mending bridges, American experts told a European Policy Centre webinar after Democrats won Congress.

The Democratic sweep of Congress will not make America more internationally minded. That was the message of a European Policy Centre (EPC) webinar held on 4 November, a day after the US midterm elections. Europeans hoping for a friend in Washington heard otherwise from Javier Carbonell, an EPC policy analyst, and his two American guests.

Bruce Stokes, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, cited exit polls. A plurality of 43 per cent of Americans want a smaller US role in the world. That includes 62 per cent of self-identified Democrats. “To expect that you’re going to have an internationally activist Democratic majority in Congress, I think is a stretch,” he said.

The support among self-identified Republicans in the United States electorate about NATO is the lowest it has been in modern times. — Bruce Stokes, German Marshall Fund

Mr Stokes expects a more traditional, inward-looking America, even with Democrats in charge on Capitol Hill. Europe barely featured in the campaign. Frances Burwell, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, agreed. Ukraine was not debated. The only foreign issues were the Iran war and, because of prices, Canada and Mexico.

The scale of the win is easy to misread. “I would say that yesterday’s results were really a tidal wave against Trump, the Trump administration and its policies, but not necessarily a tidal wave for the Democrats,” said Ms Burwell. In her view, this was an anti-incumbent election.

A verdict on one man

Mr Stokes said the Democrats had won the Senate by at least 54 to 46. They won in places few expected, including South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since the Depression (in fact, the last Democratic senator from Kansas was born in 1879). Voters said by 71 to 29 per cent that they were voting against Mr Trump, not necessarily for the Democrats.

Such swings worry Mr Stokes. In 14 of the 16 most recent elections, the House, the Senate, or the White House changed hands. Voters, he argued, show little appreciation of how hard it is to govern a democracy. That volatility, he said, should give everyone pause. This is a restless electorate, not a settled one.

The cost of living drove the vote. Ms Burwell listed affordability, tariffs, petrol prices pushed up by the Iran war, and immigration tactics that voters thought went too far. Mr Stokes said Americans seemed to connect tariffs with prices this time. But they wanted lower costs, he said, not a different trade policy.

Democrats must now deliver. The new Congress sits on 3 January, and Mr Trump still holds the veto pen. Ms Burwell expects him to use it often. Even so, she said, Democrats should pass bills, such as restoring health-insurance subsidies, to take into 2028. “They have to have a positive message.”

The president holds the cards

For Europe, trade comes first, and the news is poor. “I don’t think that there’s likely to be any real relief for Europe on trade,” said Mr Stokes. Rationally, he argued, Mr Trump would trim tariffs to ease inflation. “But if he was going to do that, he should have done it before the election because after the election it doesn’t really have much impact.”

Congress has little say. “But the President holds the cards when it comes to tariffs,” said Ms Burwell. The tools in question are Section 301 investigations. (Section 301 is a part of US trade law, the Trade Act of 1974. It lets the US Trade Representative investigate whether a foreign government’s policies discriminate against American companies or trade unfairly. If the investigation finds that they do, Washington can retaliate, usually with tariffs.)

To expect that you’re going to have an internationally activist Democratic majority in Congress, I think is a stretch. — Bruce Stokes

 “These 301 investigations are something that the executive branch does and they don’t require approval by Congress,” the Atlantic Council fellow said. A Democratic majority cannot simply switch them off. The numbers are specific. A 301 case on forced labour already brings 10 per cent tariffs on the EU. The Turnberry agreement allows 15 per cent. Ms Burwell expects a report on excess capacity between now and Christmas. It would add five per cent, reaching the Turnberry limit. Officials in Washington and the Commission, she said, had factored that in.

A further 301 case on digital issues is rumoured. Its target—it is unclear whether it is the EU alone, a Google fine, or what some in the State Department call Europe’s attack on free speech—remains unknown. Ms Burwell cautioned that this administration spreads rumours for months. Few senior officials, she added, earn credit for engaging with Europe.

Goodwill in Congress, but…

On Ukraine, the picture is mixed. Ms Burwell sees goodwill in Congress. “I do think that there is a reservoir of goodwill towards Ukraine in Congress,” she said. Many Republicans have been quiet because of the administration’s stance. She doubts they will stay silent.

She expects Democrats with strong Ukraine records to gain influence. Senator Chris Coons from Delaware, a known internationalist, is likely to head the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She hopes Senator Chris Murphy, one of the Democrats’ most prominent voices on foreign policy, recovers from a stroke over the weekend. Congress could back military and intelligence support. But it is the administration that decides whether it happens.

Mr Stokes made no bones about that gap. Congress passed a billion dollars for Ukraine, he said, which as far as he knew was never delivered. “Trump has a history of defying Congress when Congress authorizes money.” The pattern—promises that outrun deliveries—also applies to Mr Trump’s offer of 500 Patriot missiles. CSIS, a Washington think-tank, says America holds only 800.

NATO is another worry. Mr Stokes noted that America cannot leave the alliance without congressional approval, and a floor limits troop cuts. Mr Trump could defy it and get sued. Yet the base has shifted. “The support among self-identified Republicans in the United States electorate about NATO is the lowest it has been in modern times.”

Investigations cut both ways

Congress will investigate the administration. Both Ms Burwell and Mr Stokes doubt that Democrats will try to impeach Mr Trump. “I personally think that would be a huge mistake,” said Mr Stokes. Yet probes have their own logic. “But when you begin to investigate an administration, you may uncover things you didn’t even know you were looking for.”

Some inquiries could touch Europe. Ms Burwell described a White House meeting at which Swiss business people gave the president a Rolex. Some see it as having helped shepherd the US-Swiss trade agreement. What happens if Democrats decide it was a sign of corruption? “I don’t know,” she said, summing up the position of the world at large with quite some precision.

There is more. Ms Burwell said anger crossed party lines over the handling of the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s Russian sanctions bill. America has also banned imports of Russian diesel, so it is unclear whether the president’s diesel deal is legal. Probes into both, she said, could pull Washington back towards Ukraine.

But there are risks. Many Republicans, she noted, still link Ukraine to Hunter Biden. “The public’s not always rational,” she said, so a backlash is possible. Investigations may also loosen Mr Trump’s grip on his party. “Or is Donald Trump not only a lame duck president, but he’s a lame duck within the Republican Party and we’ll just have to see.”

Munich as an opening

Ms Burwell expects friendlier words from Washington. “I think that the result of the election for Europe will be that the rhetoric will be much better.” She expects the return of what she calls the McCain Republicans, who have been hiding in the shadows. Rhetoric, however, is not policy, as the tariff schedule shows.

Munich is the place to start. Ms Burwell expects a large, bipartisan congressional delegation at the Munich Security Conference, including some progressives. “Europe should look at Munich as a way of reaching out to these members of Congress,” she said. Mr Stokes agreed: “But so this is an opportunity that shouldn’t be missed.”

“I do think that there is a reservoir of goodwill towards Ukraine in Congress. — Frances Burwell, Atlantic Council

Mr Stokes urged the European Parliament to move fast. New members of Congress, he noted, have perhaps a year before they must run for re-election. He suggested inviting them to Europe. He also wants Congress to open an office in Brussels, as the European Parliament has in Washington. The aim is a relationship that outlasts future elections.

Artificial intelligence offers common ground. Ms Burwell expects a congressional debate on AI legislation. “But people forget to mention that there is a comprehensive AI legislation out there in Europe which may or may not have some lessons for us.” Mr Carbonell was surprised, since European debate often stresses over-regulation. Still, he welcomed the idea.

A careful Brussels

Should Brussels retaliate? A webinar participant asked about the EU’s anti-coercion instrument. Ms Burwell was wary. “Having an instrument is not the same thing as being able to decide to use it,” she said. Consensus has always been hard, and she thinks Democratic gains will make it harder.

She gave a reason. “My gut feeling is that with the Democrats in power on Capitol Hill, more member states will be concerned about using the anti-coercion instrument as they try to build ties with new members of Congress.” Talk in Brussels of acting, she noted, has not yet turned into action.

Mr Stokes echoed her. “I think because of this overwhelming Democratic victory, Brussels has to be a bit careful unless Trump provokes it, in which case all bets are off.” Europe, he argued, should seek better ties with Democrats in Washington. It might even face a Democratic administration in two years.

A weakened president may also look abroad. Mr Stokes noted that lame-duck presidents often do more internationally. Bill Clinton turned to the Middle East after the Monica Lewinsky affair. Richard Nixon pursued arms control after Watergate. “But if I had to bet, I’d put my money on the negative side.”

Politics of the material

Mr Carbonell noted that Mr Trump had said he was happy to work with Democrats, which is not the Trump he expected. Mr Stokes would put no store in it. In his telling, Mr Trump’s idea of working together is that others do as he says. Europeans, he added, have learned that.

The vote also changes European politics. Mr Stokes said a Republican win would have encouraged Mr Trump to meddle more in European elections. Now his room to cooperate openly with far-right parties shrinks. “The publics in Europe don’t like him.” He added: “The publics in Europe as a result have less respect for the United States.”

I don’t think that there’s likely to be any real relief for Europe on trade. — Bruce Stokes

Ms Burwell drew a wider lesson. “If this election has a lesson for politicians in Europe, it is that affordability matters.” Leaders who ignore voters’ worries, she said, pay for it. “And if you don’t talk to the issues that people are concerned about, whether that’s affordability, whether it’s migration, whatever it is, they’re going to vote you out.”

Mr Carbonell saw the same trend in Spanish housing, French education protests, and anxiety over AI. “And I think we are in for a politics of the real, of the material again.” Both Americans refused to name a 2028 nominee. It is, they said, far too early.