The Hormuz crisis is hitting everything from heating bills to airfares. Europe relies on the narrow waterway for key oil and gas imports, and any disruption—even a short one—could ripple through energy markets like a bullet. Brussels warns the effects of the latest Middle East flare-up could last longer than expected. And the fresh violence in southern Lebanon confirms its words.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are still affecting global shipping routes. Fresh violence in southern Lebanon threatens efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, casting a shadow over energy markets. Hours after a US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday, Israeli airstrikes hit cities of Tyre, Nabatieh, and Beirut, fueling uncertainty across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point for Europe’s energy supply. The European Commission stressed that any disruption is unlikely to be temporary. On Wednesday, the EU’s Oil Coordination Group—a meeting of government and industry representatives—gathered to assess the situation.
Global public good
Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and potentially impose a transit toll has become a defining issue in the conflict, according to Guntram B. Wolff of Bruegel think tank. “Even if Iran imposed a toll of $1–$2 per barrel, the world economy would barely notice. Most of the cost, 80–95 per cent, falls on Gulf exporters. The main benefit is restoring full oil flow from the Gulf, stabilizing supply and potentially lowering prices from current conflict-inflated levels,” he wrote.
Even if Iran imposed a toll of $1–$2 per barrel, the world economy would barely notice. — Guntram B. Wolff, Bruegel think tank
He added that such a toll would violate international law and strengthen Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Doing nothing, however, leaves Europe and Gulf states exposed to asymmetric warfare and energy disruptions.
Policymakers now face the reality that the pre-conflict status quo cannot be restored. They must consider alternative solutions such as expanding pipelines and improving defenses against chokepoint vulnerabilities, Mr Wolff argues.
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The Commission described the strait as a “global public good” that should remain open under international law. Even though EU is less dependent on Hormuz than some Asian countries, it still relies on the corridor for key energy supplies. About 8.5 per cent of EU’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 7 per cent of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the strait.
We should be under no illusion that this crisis that currently impacts high energy prices will be short-lived. — Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, European Commission spokesperson
Refined fuels, like jet fuel and diesel, are even more exposed. Up to 40 per cent of the EU’s imports flow through Hormuz. Airlines, shipping, and trucking in Europe could feel the impact quickly if the strait were blocked. The main suppliers affected are Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Energy prices won’t drop immediately
Even with a recent ceasefire announcement lowering the risk of a broader conflict, the Commission warned that energy fallout is by no means over. “We should be under no illusion that this crisis that currently impacts high energy prices will be short-lived,” Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said.
The message reflects Brussels’ increasing view that any disturbance‚ even a temporary one‚ around Hormuz could cause a price spike that would spread beyond the region. An estimated 20 per cent of globally traded oil and LNG passes through the strait. That makes it one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world.
To keep track of the situation, the Commission convened the Oil Coordination Group, led by DG ENER, the EU’s energy department. This is not a political summit but a technical meeting to coordinate information on supply and market conditions. Industry representatives noted that, despite recent price swings, supply is currently sufficient. However, the uncertainty about how long the conflict might last raises concerns about market distortions, making transparency and coordination at EU level essential.
No immediate solutions
The Commission did not make any promises about stabilizing markets even if shipping returns to normal. Officials highlighted broader concerns including merchant ship safety, crew security, and the overall global supply chain.
At the same time, the Commission stressed that freedom of navigation should be protected, but the effects of the latest crisis will influence both prices and market confidence.
Hormuz shows how sensitive Europe remains to geopolitical tensions. Years after trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, the EU is still vulnerable to crises elsewhere.
